With qualification finely poised, we’ve picked out a couple of mutually suitable draw from the weekend fixtures:

Denmark v Sweden

Portugal are in grave danger of not qualifying, and a draw between these two Scandivanian countries pushes Ronaldo further away and each of them closer. Whether or not there is any geographical collusion, a result that suits both parties has to be likely, and at 9/4 is worth backing.

Denmark v Sweden Draw @ 9/4 (Widely available) – 1 point

Ireland v Italy

A draw for Italy would be enough for them to qualify, and no-one is better at playing for one. Ireland would be virtually in the play-offs with that result too – again it suits both parties.

Ireland v Italy Draw @ 2/1 (Betfred) – 1 point

And we’ll take a small double – Betfred go best price on both (9/4 and 2/1.

Draw Double @ 9.75 (Betfred) – 0.5 points

A couple of selections from the midweek games…

Scotland v Holland

A tough game to call, this one – a must win for Scotland, and Holland potentially easing off with qualification assured. But if Holland do turn up, they should win – so we’ll stay away from the match prices. However, considering the unpredictability, Scotland’s end to end game against Macedonia, the relative qualities of the attacks and defences going into the game, and finally the odds, over 2.5 goals looks value.

Over 2.5 goals @ 6/5 (Sporting Bet, Victor Chandler) – 2 points

Northern Ireland v Slovakia

These are the top two teams in the group, and a draw would suit both just nicely. NI will want that extra point cushion, whereas Slovakia won’t want to lose ground to the teams chasing them. A draw in this game is more likely than a game picked at random – and with the odds only slightly shorter, there is some value.

Draw @ 23/10 (Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill) – 1 point

Serbia v France

Similar rationale for this one – a draw suits both sides, plus France don’t concede many but don’t score many either.

Draw @ 23/10 (Coral) – 1 point