Password Protection Removed 22/09 11.26

As you will have noticed as a Wakuba subscriber, we have focussed on lays this season. This is both because early season form is unreliable and leads to false prices, and because, generally speaking, they offer better value. And it has started to pay dividends – we are coming to the end of a very profitable week. Here are our bets for the weekend – with lays very much the theme again.

Bolton v Stoke

Stoke are a Wakuba favourite – they continue to be underestimated by the bookies, particularly at home, and we were hugey unlucky to miss out on them holding Chelsea last week. They are weaker away – but with their new signings and strong form so far they should have enough to avoid defeat to Bolton side who have yet to convince and were lucky to get a first victory last time out against Portsmouth.

LAY Bolton @ 2.26 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Southampton v Yeovil

Southampton have struggled massively this season, without a win in their first seven matches. As such it is a mystery why they are chalked up SO short against Yeovil who, while admittedly not the best side in the division, have shown better early season form than the Saints. Southampton might get off the mark in this one – but the price is false.

LAY Southampton @ 1.69 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Chesterfield v Macclesfield

Another side that are chalked up far too short at home. Chesterfield have not won in their last four league matches, and are struggling a little. Macclesfield have lost only to high flyers Crewe and Rotherham so far, and got a creditable draw against Barnet last time out. Again Chesterfield could win – but again are falsely short and must be laid.

LAY Chesterfield @ 1.74 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Darlington v Bournemouth

Bournemouth are odds on to win away at Darlington – and that raises an eyebrow in any game in this division. Darlington are winless in the league this season but are unbeaten in their last two home games – and could continue that record against the high flyers, especially as the Cherries have lost two of their last three away.

LAY Bournemouth @ 1.9 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Morecambe v Notts County

It is with a little trepidation that we oppose Notts County, as they have been irresistable at times. However, at others they have struggled – and Morecambe have a good record against the top sides in the division at home. Another short price that can be laid.

LAY Notts County @ 1.96 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Password protection removed at 17.58 15/02/09

Here is your subscription content for the weekend of the 14th/15th February…

Derby v Man Utd

An interesting game, this – can Clough’s revitalised Derby spring a surprise? 9/1 says they do. Will Utd outclass them with a changed side? That’s 4/11. Will they even change their side? Will Carlos Tevez get on the scoresheet? That’s 13/10. Derby won the League Cup game at Pride Park earlier in the season – and put two past United at Old Trafford in a 4-2 defeat. Although Man Utd are on a phenomenal run in the Premiership – eight consecutive wins and no goals conceded for 13 matches – but during that time, in cup games, they have conceded nine in five games. There is a definite feeling that Utd relax a little in the cups, and play slightly more expansive football – this, combined with probable changes to Derby’s side, Derby’s improved recent form, and home advantage, makes the pick for us is Derby to score (1 or more goals) @ 5/6 (Paddy Power).

Derby to score 1 or more goals @ 5/6 (Paddy Power) – 1 point

Burnley v Wolves

Six of Burnley’s last eight games at home have gone over 2.5 – and they have only kept seven clean sheets this season. Their attack is potent, though, with 23 in 15 home matches and 21 in 16 away (the 3rd highest in the division). They have overcome their blip after their glut of cup fixtures, and should cause Wolves trouble. With their defence, however, you wouldn’t back on them keeping the visiting team at bay – particularly as Wolves have scored 29 away goals, by far the best in the division. Wolves have scored two or more in 23 of their 32 games this season – but also have a weak defence, conceding 25 away from home – ironically only ‘worsed’ by Burnley themselves. Considering all these factors, over 2.5 goals has to be the way to go here.

Burnley v Wolves – Over 2.5 goals @ 8/11 (888sport, BlueSq) – 1 point

Bristol City v Southampton

Bristol City go into this clash with four straight wins, whereas struggling Southampton have just one win from fourteen games. With form and momentum, against a Southampton side lacking both – and confidence – the widely available 8/11 represents value.

Bristol City @ 8/11 (available everywhere) – 1 point

Bradford v Wycombe

A top of the table League Two clash – but two teams in very different form. Wycombe’s scrappy win over Accrington Stanley does not disguise their recent toils – they are a long way away from their all conquering early season form, and had suffered two defeats in their three games prior to that win. Bradford, on the other hand, have suffered only one defeat in their past nine games, winning their last two, and now proudly atop the table – ahead of Wycombe on goal difference. The home side will be hugely fired up for this game, aware of their chance to open a gap, whereas Wycombe will be demoralised at the possibility of falling further behind, after being so dominant previously.

Bradford @ 7/5 (Victor Chandler) – 1 point

Exeter v Aldershot

Exeter come into this match on a high after a 4-0 thumping of Macclesfield – one of two wins in their last three. They are a team in form, and are steadily climbing the table after a recent poor run. Aldershot suffered a heavy defeat to Rochdale last time out, and prior to that were thumped 3-0 by Brentford. William Hill are the only firm to go odds against on the home side and that is definitely worth a point.

Exeter @ 21/20 (William Hill) – 1 point

Macclesfield v Rochdale

We have backed Rochdale in each of their last three wins, and there is no reason to deviate from that against Macclesfield. The away side suffered the aforementioned 4-0 humbling by Exeter in their last game – and that was preceded by a 2-0 defeat to Rotherham. They have failed to score in their last three outings, whereas Rochdale have scored two or more in their last six consecutive matches. Rochdale are a very good League Two side (we fancy them as outsiders for the title) and should be too strong here.

Rochdale @ 11/10 (Generally available) – 2 points

Rotherham v Gillingham

Rotherham’s league position is only a result of their points deduction – with the 17 points they’ve lost, they would actually only be three points behind Gillingham with a game in hand. Gillingham are struggling a little, with only victory over lowly Chester in their last three outings, and with home advantage the 11/8 available on Rotherham looks appealing.

Rotherham @ 11/8 (Skybet) – 1 point

EDIT: Our subscription content can now be revealed… (10/1)

There is a theme to our subscription content this week – in fact the two sides we reccommend have a lot in common… they’re local rivals, both have new managers, both underperforming this season, both coming into their games on the back of excellent FA Cup wins… you got them yet?

Charlton v Notts Forest

Nottingham Forest are the bet of the weekend. Flush from their fantastic 3-0 win at Eastlands, they visit a Charlton side that have not won for 17 games. They are unbeaten in seven away games, and have won their last two (three if you include the defeat of City). They have new manager syndrome with the appointment of Billy Davies, and we all know what effect that tends to have on teams – there is already evidence of it. Forest do have a talented, young side, and Calderwood can have no complaints about his dismissal, they should not be in the position they find themselves.

Charlton incredibly gave the full time manager’s job to Phil Parkinson, who as caretaker drew three and lost seven. It seems an insane move powered by poverty, and after no win in 17 games including none in 10 for their new manager, they are at their lowest ebb.

Factoring in all this information, the 2/1 available on a Forest win is hugely attractive.

Nottingham Forest @ 3.0 (Betfair) – 1 point

Nottingham Forest + 0.25 @ 1.8 (Victor Chandler) – 1 point

And the side with whom they have so much in common are of course Derby…

Cardiff City v Derby

We have already commented on the Clough factor – and Derby have already exemplified the new manager phenomenon with their excellent and thoroughly deserved 1-0 win over Man Utd in the Carling Cup. They go into the match with Cardiff with renewed belief and confidence, and will hope to knock the Welshmen off their stride. Cardiff go into this game in decent form, and have a strong home record, but it’s the price as much as anything that makes this attractive; Derby can be backed at 5/1 with Betfred.

Derby @ 5/1 (Betfred) – 0.5 points

Derby +1 @ 1.77 (Betfair) – 1 point