A value bet to flag up for the freeloaders…

Spurs v Birmingham

The bookies have overreacted massively to Spurs’ start to the season, cutting them from 200/1 to just 30/1. They are rightly favourites to beat Birmingham – but Alex McLeish’s side are well drilled and well organised, and will not be easy to roll over (witness Man Utd’s narrow 1-0 victory over them). Bookmakers are siding with the momentum and favour Spurs for an easy win – they are as short as 4/11, and consequently over 2.5 goals is a miserly 5/8 in places. That leaves some value in the under market – Birmingham’s tight defence could make this difficult, and the 13/11 on Betfair looks appealing.

Under 2.5 goals @ 13/11 (Betfair) – 2 points

Sunderland take on Chelsea and Wigan take on Wolves on Tuesday – and it’s in the latter game we see a great opportunity.

Considering their opening day performance Wigan are worth a look anyway, but what makes them stand out all the more are the injury problems their visitors are suffering. They could be missing an entire team (including loans etc) -  Murray, Foley, Shackell, Berra, Ward, Kightly, Halford, Zubar, Doyle, Ebanks-Blake, and Iwelumo. With all of those players out Wolves’ squad is average Championship at best, and Wigan have to be strong favourites, at home, to beat a team of that quality. They are 4/5 with Totesport and Ladbrokes, which is excellent value.

Wigan @ 4/5 (Totesport/Ladbrokes) – 2 points

There is one stand-out bet in the Premiership this weekend; and that is Stoke at home to Newcastle.

Stoke have an excellent home record, one of the best in the division, and even won away from home last time out as they consigned West Brom to relegation. Their record at the Britannia is bettered only by the Big Four; and against a side in the relegation zone, as Newcastle are, an odds against price – 6/4 in fact – looks fantastic value.

The ‘Shearer factor’ is the one thing to be aware of (and the thing that amy affect our selection of Newcastle to be relegated) – but considering the last messiah, Kevin Keegan, took nine matches to get off the mark – and Newcastle were arguably in better shape then than now – it may not kick in just yet.

Back Stoke’s excellent home form to continue – and Newcastle’s malaise to deepen.

Stoke @ 6/4 (Bet365, Victor Chandler) – 1 point