Liverpool will be desperate for three points having already lost once this season, and with Torres and Gerrard both fit there is a good chance they will get them. Villa looked uncertain and vulnerable against Wigan on the first day of the season (made to look even more so by Wigan’s subsequent defeats) and it’s unlikely they will be able to repel Liverpool at Anfield – particularly considering Liverpool’s record against them (they have not lost in ten and beat them 5-0 last time out). Villa are reasonably potent away from home though – there could be goals in this one.

Liverpool v Aston Villa – Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes) – 2 points

Dinamo Moscow v Chelsea

We tipped Chelsea because of their strong home form – but they were turned over, losing 1-0 in Scotland to a Russian side who looked sharper, fitter and better after 15 games of their domestic season. We would have opposed Celtic in Russia anyway (such is the stark contract between home and away form) and their first leg only served to reinforce that. Celtic have not won away in Europe for six years (!) and have never recovered a European tie after losing at home. It’s difficult to pick the right bet – Dinamo appeal at 2.1, but Celtic could get a draw, so we’ll take the 1/2 about Dinamo, Draw No Bet, with Sporting Bet.

Dinamo Moscow (Draw No Bet) @ 1/2 – Sporting Bet – 2 points

Warwickshire v Somerset

Another bet that appeals comes in the County Championship, where Warwickshire take on Somerset. Both sides have strong batting line ups and less appealing bowling attacks – and add to that Edgbaston has seen 17 of the last 21 games as draws, plus variable weather, and the 1/9 on Betfair looks appealing.

Warwickshire v Somerset – Draw @ 1.9 (Betfair) – 2 points

As is to be expected, both Semi-Finals are enormously difficult to call. There is no obvious value in the match betting – but our bet of the round comes in tomorrow’s Man United v Arsenal game.

Manchester United are wobbling, there is no doubt – and though their second half destruction of Tottenham will have been morale boosting it will only paper over the cracks in their previously impenetrable defence. They’ve conceded 13 in their last 9, and with Wes Brown possibly returning tomorrow there could be a further unsettling reshuffle. Arsenal are scoring freely – 2,4,1,3,4 goals scored in their last five games and are in great form – a United clean sheet is by no means guaranteed, and dare we say, unlikely.

Where is the value, then? Against Middlesbrough, Cesc Fabregas played an advanced role as he did to great effect last season, and scored both the Gunners’ goals. Against United, Van Persie is likely to be out and Arshavin is ineligible, so Fabregas could again operate in the ‘hole’ behind the striker (Adebayor). He is available at 16/1 to be first goalscorer – that’s cracking value – and the safe bet is to back him to score anytime, at an equally generous 6/1 with Sporting Bet and Paddy Power.

Man United v Arsenal – Cesc Fabregas to score anytime @ 6/1 (Sporting Bet/PaddyPower) – 1 point

We oh so nearly landed an 80-1 double last night – Man City went to extra time, but a 70th minute Shakhtar goal and an 81st minute PSG one denied us the second part. Another goal for Zenit would also have done it.

However, the Man City game going to ET was 11-1 – and if you covered the singles, as we suggested, you would still have made tidy profit.

Check back later for our weekend selections.

Our subscribers will be happy this morning as we brought them a 4/1 winner (Chesterfield) and an 11/8 romp (Bournemouth). One goal in the Swansea game denied us a clean sweep but we returned a healthy profit (77% to be exact) from the evening.

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The Dutch League

There are two heavy favourites taking the field this weekend – Heerenveen at home to Rotterdam on Saturday, and Ajax at home to De Graafschap on Sunday. Both teams are heavily odds on, and rightly so; Heerenveen’s home record is 9-3-1 with their opponents mirroring that away, with 1-3-9. Ajax have a 10-2-1 at home, with their opponents again mirroring that with 1-2-10. So, statistically, you can see why the home sides are heavy favourites; but doubling them together gives some value.

Heerenveen and Ajax double (4/11 and 1/5, Skybet) = 1.63 – 1 point

Aston Villa v Spurs

Villa are wobbling – seriously – and face a Spurs team that have hit a rare patch of form. They are unbeaten in five, with wins against Hull and crushingly against Boro, and draws with Sunderland, Man Utd (Carling Cup) and Shakhtar (UEFA Cup). They will smell blood against a Villa side out of form and hugely nervous of dropping out of the top four, particularly considering their abandoning of the UEFA Cup. Spurs are available at 3/1 which is a big price, and Villa must also be considered a lay at around even money.

LAY Villa @ 2.14 (Betfair) – 1 point

Spurs @ 3/1 (Bet365) – 0.5 points