Password Protection Removed 22/09 11.26

As you will have noticed as a Wakuba subscriber, we have focussed on lays this season. This is both because early season form is unreliable and leads to false prices, and because, generally speaking, they offer better value. And it has started to pay dividends – we are coming to the end of a very profitable week. Here are our bets for the weekend – with lays very much the theme again.

Bolton v Stoke

Stoke are a Wakuba favourite – they continue to be underestimated by the bookies, particularly at home, and we were hugey unlucky to miss out on them holding Chelsea last week. They are weaker away – but with their new signings and strong form so far they should have enough to avoid defeat to Bolton side who have yet to convince and were lucky to get a first victory last time out against Portsmouth.

LAY Bolton @ 2.26 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Southampton v Yeovil

Southampton have struggled massively this season, without a win in their first seven matches. As such it is a mystery why they are chalked up SO short against Yeovil who, while admittedly not the best side in the division, have shown better early season form than the Saints. Southampton might get off the mark in this one – but the price is false.

LAY Southampton @ 1.69 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Chesterfield v Macclesfield

Another side that are chalked up far too short at home. Chesterfield have not won in their last four league matches, and are struggling a little. Macclesfield have lost only to high flyers Crewe and Rotherham so far, and got a creditable draw against Barnet last time out. Again Chesterfield could win – but again are falsely short and must be laid.

LAY Chesterfield @ 1.74 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Darlington v Bournemouth

Bournemouth are odds on to win away at Darlington – and that raises an eyebrow in any game in this division. Darlington are winless in the league this season but are unbeaten in their last two home games – and could continue that record against the high flyers, especially as the Cherries have lost two of their last three away.

LAY Bournemouth @ 1.9 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Morecambe v Notts County

It is with a little trepidation that we oppose Notts County, as they have been irresistable at times. However, at others they have struggled – and Morecambe have a good record against the top sides in the division at home. Another short price that can be laid.

LAY Notts County @ 1.96 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Password protection removed 07/02/09 18.59

Sheffield Utd v Sheffield Wednesday

The steel city derby – Sheffield United are in good form, and Wednesday are improving. They also have a decent recent record at Bramall Lane. As the old adage goes, ‘form goes out of the window in a derby game’ – and with two relatively closely matched teams the odds on (1.94) around Sheffield Utd is too short. On that basis, they are a lay.

LAY Sheffield Utd @ 1.94 (Betfair) – 1 point liability

Plymouth v Derby

Derby go into this on the back of a hugely morale boosting victory at Nottingham Forest – coming back to win 3-2 after going two behind will do wonders for their confidence, and as Robbie Savage pointed out, a few months ago they would have lost that game four or five. They are undoubtedly a talented side, and it just remains to be seen if Clough can get the best from them. The signs are good. Plymouth only have one win in their last 13 games, and the 9/4 on a resurgent Derby looks big.

Derby @ 9/4 (Boyles) – 2 points

Scunthorpe v Cheltenham

Cheltenham have conceded 34 goals away from home and have only won once on the road all season. Their last five games have been ridiculous – 3-5, 3-2, 2-2, 3-1, 3-6 – and against a Scunthorpe side that are strong at home – 8-3-2 with 28 goals – there is nothing to suggest their defence will hold tight here. Scunthorpe are too short to follow but there is some value on over goals.

Over 2.5 goals @ 7/10 (Bet365) – 1 point

Swindon v Southend

Swindon’s performances are steadily picking up under Danny Wilson; only one defeat in four is amongst their best run of the season. Against a mediocre Southend side with only two wins on the road all season, there is some value on odds against.

Swindon @ 11/8 (Bet365) – 1 point

Rochdale v Morecambe

We’ve backed Rochdale for two consecutive weeks now, with two wins, so there is no reason to stray away as their hot streak grows. Morecambe have only two away wins all season, and Rochdale should overcome them at home – at admittedly slightly short odds. But a winner is a winner!

Rochdale @ 4/6 (Widely available) – 1 point

Two Premiership goals bets for you over the next couple of days:

1. Everton v Sunderland Under 2.5 @ 1.78 (Betfair)

Everton are lacking a striker and therefore firepower, and are tight at the back – Sunderland will be keen to avoid defeat. All the pointers are for under goals.

2. Hull v Aston Villa Over 2.5 @ 1.86 (Betfair)

Aston Villa are missing both Laursen and Cuellar, and against a Hull side who will be desperate to bounce back after capitulation against Man City, will have to ourtscore the home side to win the game (rather than shutting them out). Hull score and concede in abundance, and this could be a goal fest.