Just one this weekend…

Spurs v Wolves

This is roundly expected to be a comprehensive Spurs victory, and it’s difficult to find reasons why not. But how to profit? Scanning the markets, one stands out – and that is corners. If as expected Spurs batter Wolves they will get plenty of corners (expecially with Lennon terrorising down the wing) and Wolves actually get a surprising amount of corners away from home – 6 against Man City, 7 against United, 9 against Sunderland and 5 against Everton.

Over 11 Corners @ 11/10 (SkyBet) – 2 points

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Manchester United take on Wolfsburg tonight in what should be an entertaining encounter. Wolfsburg have the prolific strikefore of Dzeko and Grafite and United have looked far from secure at the back so far this season. United’s home CL record is not to be underestimated (they have not lost since February 2005!) but Wolfsburg will be a threat. It’s a choice between both teams to score at evens (Coral) and over 2.5 goals at a best price 4/6. That second price is slightly skewed by United’s favouritism – so we’ll take value on Wolfsburg scoring.

Man Utd and Wolfsburg both sides to score @ Evens (Coral) – 2 points

Nottingham Forest v Scunthorpe

Forest have struggled at home this season, losing three times already, and will be desperate to turn this around. They have tightened up at the back (conceding only four goals in their last five games) and with Rob Earnshaw returning for this one will hope to start scoring at the other end. Scunthorpe are an unpredictable side but have doubts over influential striker Gary Hooper, whose absence will severely blunt them. This could be a tight encounter, with Scunthorpe playing for a draw – and under 2.5 goals looks the bet.

Forest v Scunthorpe under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (widely available) – 2 points

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Sheffield Utd v Sheffield Wednesday

The steel city derby – Sheffield United are in good form, and Wednesday are improving. They also have a decent recent record at Bramall Lane. As the old adage goes, ‘form goes out of the window in a derby game’ – and with two relatively closely matched teams the odds on (1.94) around Sheffield Utd is too short. On that basis, they are a lay.

LAY Sheffield Utd @ 1.94 (Betfair) – 1 point liability

Plymouth v Derby

Derby go into this on the back of a hugely morale boosting victory at Nottingham Forest – coming back to win 3-2 after going two behind will do wonders for their confidence, and as Robbie Savage pointed out, a few months ago they would have lost that game four or five. They are undoubtedly a talented side, and it just remains to be seen if Clough can get the best from them. The signs are good. Plymouth only have one win in their last 13 games, and the 9/4 on a resurgent Derby looks big.

Derby @ 9/4 (Boyles) – 2 points

Scunthorpe v Cheltenham

Cheltenham have conceded 34 goals away from home and have only won once on the road all season. Their last five games have been ridiculous – 3-5, 3-2, 2-2, 3-1, 3-6 – and against a Scunthorpe side that are strong at home – 8-3-2 with 28 goals – there is nothing to suggest their defence will hold tight here. Scunthorpe are too short to follow but there is some value on over goals.

Over 2.5 goals @ 7/10 (Bet365) – 1 point

Swindon v Southend

Swindon’s performances are steadily picking up under Danny Wilson; only one defeat in four is amongst their best run of the season. Against a mediocre Southend side with only two wins on the road all season, there is some value on odds against.

Swindon @ 11/8 (Bet365) – 1 point

Rochdale v Morecambe

We’ve backed Rochdale for two consecutive weeks now, with two wins, so there is no reason to stray away as their hot streak grows. Morecambe have only two away wins all season, and Rochdale should overcome them at home – at admittedly slightly short odds. But a winner is a winner!

Rochdale @ 4/6 (Widely available) – 1 point

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A few bets stand out in the Premiership this weekend – here is our run-through…

Man City v Middlesbrough

We said before Man City’s game against Blackburn (which they won:)

Man City have a 6-0-5 record at home – somewhat erratic. However, three of those five defeats have come against the Big Four – and one each against Spurs and Everton. So in their games against ‘lesser’ opposition, they have a 6-0 record.

With new signings Cudicini, De Jong, and Bellamy likely to go straight in, and the influential Stephen Ireland returning from suspension, the slight odds on price for Man City looks good value.

This is only compounded by their victory over Blackburn; despite their abject away defeat to Stoke – they have struggled on the road all season – they have been strong recently, and the acquisition of Shay Given, giving the defence more security and organisation, will only help further.

Plus ‘Boro are in an abject run of form, without a win since the 9th November (12 games) – Eastlands is not an easy place to turn that around.

Man City @ 8/13 (Generally Available) – 2 points

Everton v Bolton

Everton’s defensive resilience is well documented, with only four goals conceded in eleven games. And they will be keen to arrest a three game winless streak bybuilding from the back. Bolton tend to keep things tight, and have done up to their two recent games. They’ll find it hard to breach Everton’s defence, and with a lack of strikers it’s difficult to see Everton scoring too many.

Everton v Bolton Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 (Bet365, 888sport, BlueSq) – 1 point

Wigan v Fulham

Wigan’s last five results – 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 0-1, 1-0 – so an obvious trend there. Fulham have conceded only 10 goals in 11 matches, and scored only 3 – so a definite lack of goals there, too. Fulham will be extra keen to keep things tight knowing they’ll struggle for goals, and Wigan will be anxious to avoid defeat, losing two of their last four. Everything here points to under goals.

Wigan v Fulham – Under 2.5 goals @ 4/7 (888sport) – 2 points

Sunderland v Stoke

Stoke’s away form is poor – without a win all season, and their defeat of Man City was their only win in 12. Sunderland are inconsistent, capable of good performances but also infuriatingly likely to turn in a substandard one. The bookies obviously fancy the Mackams for this one, the best price available is 4/5 – this may be worth a small punt, but perhaps more value is available in the first goalscorer market. Of Sunderland’s last six league goals five have been scored by either Djibril Cisse or Kenwyne Jones; and with Sunderland likely to score first here, backing them both offers some value.

Kenwyne Jones to score first @ 6/1 (BlueSq) – 1 point
Djibril Cisse to score first @ 6/1 (Stan James) – 1 point

Portsmouth v Liverpool

Liverpool are the new Everton – strikerless, and lacking penetration, but very solid at the back. Torres is still unfit and Gerrard is missing. Portsmouth, although in a bad run, have been a little unlucky of late – and prior to their 3-1 defeat to Fulham last time out, only conceded once in each of their three previous home games, against Villa, Spurs and Arsenal – all arguably a greater threat than Liverpool.

Under goals is the way to go here.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/11 (Boyle Sports) – 1 point