Leeds v Accrington

It’s debatable whether Leeds’ heart is really in this competition – having only beaten Darlington and Grimsby so far, we just don’t know. If it’s not, then Accrington are capable of taking advantage. They are 5/1 to qualify which looks a decent price – and there is also some outstanding value in the correct score market, which we’ll also take a tiny interest in.

Accrington to qualify v Leeds @ 5/1 (Stan James) – 1 point

Accrington 3-0 @ 425/1 (Paddy Power) – 0.125 points

Accrington 2-0 @ 80-1 (Paddy Power) – 0.125 points

Accrington 1-0 @ 22-1 (Paddy Power) – 0.25 points

Birmingham v Blackburn

Both of these sides have struggled for goals recently so it’s no surprise to see odds on quotes abut U2.5. However there is some value in the 8/1 about a 0-0 – that result would occur in more than one in eight games between these two sides on current form.

0-0 @ 8/1 (Widely available) – 1 point

Man Utd v Wolves

Of course United are favourites. But they are struggling for goals, and suffered at the hands of Villa last time out. Wolves got a great 1-0 win against Spurs – and both those things will encourage McCarthy’s men that they can hold out at Old Trafford. They probably won’t – but at 18/1 the 0-0 has some appeal.

0-0 @ 18/1 (Widely Available) – 0.5 points

Wolfsburg v Man Utd

Wolfsburg have been tipped up in many places for this game – but there looks to be a more obvious bet in this game. They are strong going forward, and weak at the back – and everyone knows about Man United’s defensive problems. With Dzeko and Grafite likely to terrorise Ferguson’s two makeshift centre-backs, yet with United still possessing attacking strength, over 2.5 goals looks the play.

Over 2.5 goals @ 5/6 (Widely Available) – 2 points

The Championship

Ipswich are now 8 unbeaten (albeit with 6 draws) but are steadily rising, and at home against struggling Peterborough look decent value at slight odds on. Boro go into their game with Blackpool on a high after smashing five past QPR at the weekend, and around 7/10 is attractive at the Riverside. Finally, tomorrow, Newcastle are in terrific form with six consecutive wins after a slight wobble. It’s difficult to see beyond them taking 3 points from struggling Coventry.

Combining these in a multiple provides the best odds at 5.52 with both Ladbrokes and 888sport.

Ipswich @ 8/11, Boro @ 4/6 and Newcastle @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes and 888Sport) – 2 points

Man Utd v Tottenham

With United set to name a reserve team and Spurs on the lookout for another trophy, 14/5 looks cracking value on the away side.

Tottenham  @ 14/5 (Paddy Power) – 2 points

Mark Robins has had a marked effect on Barnsley, hauling them off the bottom to the heady heights of 18th, where they are now level on points with Sheffield United. The Blades have a horrendous injury list:

Kyle Walker damaged ankle ligaments against Newcastle and is out, while a calf strain has shorn Blackwell of the services of Jordan Stewart.

Gary Naysmith, Derek Geary (both knee), Richard Cresswell (ribs), Jamie Ward (broken wrist), Nick Montgomery (knee), Lee Williamson (back), Andrew Davies (knee), Andrew Taylor (thigh) and Paddy Kenny (drugs ban)

And considering the recent form, Barnsley at 13/8 look a solid home bet.

Barnsley @ 13/8 (Boylesports, William Hill) – 2 points

Apologies for the hiatus… we’re back with selections from this weekend’s football:

Sheffield Wednesday v QPR

Wednesday bounced back well from a humiliating defeat to Watford by claiming a draw against Bristol City with a squad depleted by swine flu. There is now hot competition for places, and with their home record QPR face a tough task to take all three points, and look underpriced at 6/4 – particularly as they have suffered a dip in form and results.

LAY QPR @ 2.62 (2 point liability)

Reading v Ipswich

A basement battle at the Majedski, with both sides coming into this after a rare win – Reading’s being their first in five, and Ipswich (finally) getting their first of the season. Ipswich’s position is somewhat misleading, and they should kick on after getting their first 3 points. Reading are flimsy and struggle to score goals, so the 21/10 quotes from Boyles and Coral have some appeal.

Ipswich @ 21/10 (Boyles, Coral) – 1 point

Chelsea v Man Utd

Arguably the biggest game o the season so far, and with United shakey and unconvincing, a Chelsea victory is on the cards. They are on a great run of form, scoring goals aind winning, and unless United really pull out something special they will be up against it. Although Chelsea look a little short at first glance, all things considered it still represents value.

Chelsea @ 11/10 (Ladbrokes) – 1 point

Burnley v Wigan

Burnley are this season’s Stoke – underrated at home because of how poor they are away. Wigan are exactly the type of side that they could roll over in the cauldron Turf Moor. Considering the relative home and away records, 6/4 is a stand out price.

Burnley @ 6/4 – 1 point (Bet365, Skybet, Stan James)

Newcastle v Doncaster

Doncaster are exactly the kind of side Newcastle will hate playing in the Championship. They keep it tight and keep the ball, and could frustrate the Geordies. At strong odds on Newcastle are worth a lay – and expect this to be a hard fought encounter with few goals.

LAY Newcastle @ 1.61 (Betfair) – 1 point (Liability)

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Widely available) – 1 point

Barnsley v West Brom

We’ve followed Barnsley a couple of times since Mark Robins took over, and he has brought some much needed solidity and organisation to Oakwell. West Brom go into this on the back of a surprise defeat to Palace and a disciplined Barnsley side are capable of making it two games without a win. At odds on away from home the Baggies are too short.

LAY West Brom at 1.78 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Peterborough v Plymouth

Plymouth are on an horrific run and though odds on at home in the Championship is always a tad risky, the relative motivation and form of these two sides the 8/11 available on Peterborough actually represents some value.

Peterborough @ 8/11 (Totesport, Stan James) – 2 points

Sheffield United v Ipswich

Roy Keane and Ipswich’s troubles are well documented – they are winless in the Championship and the pressure is mounting – he has said so himself. His words may galvanise his side into belated action – and though form is not the best indicator here a price of 1.63 is false on Sheffield United against what is essentially a decent side.

LAY Sheffield United @ 1.65 (Betfair) 2 point liability

Bristol City v Blackpool

Bristol City have home advantage, whereas Blackpool are in good form (four wins from five in the league) – this game is tough to call and the wise money is on the draw.

DRAW @ 5/2 (Skybet) – 1 point

Lincoln v Notts County

County are a team we’ve opposed a couple of times this season, and though they have been strong at home they have been inconsistent away (losing their last three games). Consequently odds around even money are not attractive, especially with ‘new manager’ syndrome surrounding Chris Sutton.

LAY Notts County @ 2.06 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

AZ v Standard Liege

Although AZ have a good home record in Europe the majority of those games have been in the UEFA cup. Standard have put in some impressive performances (primarily against English sides) and are being underestimated in this game. A lay of the home side is the way to go.

LAY AZ @ 2.04 (Betfair) – 1.5 point liability
Standard @ 4.3 (Betfair) – 0.5 points

Password protection removed 14/09 @ 14.57

Mark Robins’ move from Rotherham to Barnsley is the catalyst for our first two selections:

Rotherham v Morecambe

Rotherham will be reeling from the departure of their manager, who was creating a solid outfit. His influence will be stamped all over the club, and they could suffer in his wake. No doubt he will have spoken to various team members about their departure too, unsettling them further. Morecambe will sense weakness and although only ended up with a draw, their three goal bonanza against Rochdale will give them confidence. Rotherham are far too short at 1.66, and a definite lay.

LAY Rotherham @ 1.66 (Betfair) – 2 points liability

Watford v Barnsley

Tutored under Sir Alex Ferguson, Robins is a strong personality. Expect him to have a positive influence immediately he joins Barnsley. With his appointment their momentum should be enough to at least avoid defeat against Watford, who can be laid at slight odds against.

LAY Watford @ 2.1 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Stoke v Chelsea

Stoke are consistently underestimated, particularly at home. They have a great record (behind only the Big Four last season) and are more than capable of giving the big sides a scare. Chelsea are very mechanical at the moment, swwping all before them, but can struggle for a spark of invention on occasion. They are 4/9 away, which is very short, and worth laying for a small stake.

LAY Chelsea @ 1.43 (Betfair) – 1 point liability

Portsmouth v Bolton

Two sides short on invention without a win between them all season (seven games in total). Both will be determined not to lose this, and it is likely to be scrappy and low quality. 0-0 is tempting – but we’ll play under 2.5 as the odd goal could nick it.

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 (SkyBet, Stan James, BetFred) – 2 points

Password protection removed 08/09 16.44

Oldham v Hartlepool (Tonight)

Hartlepool have already lost three games this season – but drilling deeper, they were against Charlton, Bristol City, and Norwich, all of whom are expected to finish near the top of the division. Oldham have injury problems, particularly defensively, and also a poor home record – they have not won at Boundary Park for 13 games. Bearing this in mind, quotes about the home side look too short.

LAY Oldham @ 2.12 (Betfair) – 2 points (Liability)

Crewe v Macclesfield

The relative league positions of these sides (6th and 19th) have a big bearing on the prices in this one (around 1.65 and 5.0). That is a huge disparity, and probably not justified by a gap of only four points. Teams heavily odds on are always a tempting lay in League Two, especially when there seems little reasoning for it.

LAY Crewe @ 1.73 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Bristol Rovers v Millwall

Bristol Rovers have not let the loss of Ricky Lambert hold them back and have made a decent start to the season. Millwall have been unconvincing, but more importantly have huge injury problems. Rovers have also won 3 of the last 4 meetings between the sides. At 13/10 there is some appeal on the home side.

Bristol Rovers @ 13/10 (Bet365) – 1 point

Rotherham v Chesterfield

Rotherham’s manager Mark Robins has been placed on gardening leave while he speaks to Barnsley about their vacant managerial position. That is bound to have an unsettling effect on the side, and with Chesterfield coming into this game on the back of a 5-1 away win there is every chance of an upset. Rotherham are another lay.

LAY Rotherham @ 2.32 (Betfair) – 2 point liability