Fernando Torres to score anytime for Liverpool against Tottenham @ 13/10 (Expekt) – 2 points

It’s debatable whether Leeds’ heart is really in this competition – having only beaten Darlington and Grimsby so far, we just don’t know. If it’s not, then Accrington are capable of taking advantage. They are 5/1 to qualify which looks a decent price – and there is also some outstanding value in the correct score market, which we’ll also take a tiny interest in.

Accrington to qualify v Leeds @ 5/1 (Stan James) – 1 point

Accrington 3-0 @ 425/1 (Paddy Power) – 0.125 points

Accrington 2-0 @ 80-1 (Paddy Power) – 0.125 points

Accrington 1-0 @ 22-1 (Paddy Power) – 0.25 points

Birmingham v Blackburn

Both of these sides have struggled for goals recently so it’s no surprise to see odds on quotes abut U2.5. However there is some value in the 8/1 about a 0-0 – that result would occur in more than one in eight games between these two sides on current form.

0-0 @ 8/1 (Widely available) – 1 point

Man Utd v Wolves

Of course United are favourites. But they are struggling for goals, and suffered at the hands of Villa last time out. Wolves got a great 1-0 win against Spurs – and both those things will encourage McCarthy’s men that they can hold out at Old Trafford. They probably won’t – but at 18/1 the 0-0 has some appeal.

0-0 @ 18/1 (Widely Available) – 0.5 points

Mark Robins has done a great job at Barnsley since moving from Rotherham, and they are far from the soft touches they were earlier in the season. Consequently the even money quotes around Blackpool look too short (despite their good home form) and make for an attractive lay.

LAY Blackpool @1.97 (Betfair) – 2 points

Newcastle v Watford

Newcastle are in danger of running away with the Championship, and even at 4/7 look a decent home banker against Watford.

Norwich v Oldham

Norwich are another side on a great run, and come up against an Oldham side that have stopped scoring and started conceding. Again, even at 8/15, there’s value.

Newcastle @ 4/7 and Norwich @ 8/15 (SkyBet) – 2 point double

Oldham v Hartlepool (Tonight)

Hartlepool have already lost three games this season – but drilling deeper, they were against Charlton, Bristol City, and Norwich, all of whom are expected to finish near the top of the division. Oldham have injury problems, particularly defensively, and also a poor home record – they have not won at Boundary Park for 13 games. Bearing this in mind, quotes about the home side look too short.

LAY Oldham @ 2.12 (Betfair) – 2 points (Liability)

Crewe v Macclesfield

The relative league positions of these sides (6th and 19th) have a big bearing on the prices in this one (around 1.65 and 5.0). That is a huge disparity, and probably not justified by a gap of only four points. Teams heavily odds on are always a tempting lay in League Two, especially when there seems little reasoning for it.

LAY Crewe @ 1.73 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Bristol Rovers v Millwall

Bristol Rovers have not let the loss of Ricky Lambert hold them back and have made a decent start to the season. Millwall have been unconvincing, but more importantly have huge injury problems. Rovers have also won 3 of the last 4 meetings between the sides. At 13/10 there is some appeal on the home side.

Bristol Rovers @ 13/10 (Bet365) – 1 point

Rotherham v Chesterfield

Rotherham’s manager Mark Robins has been placed on gardening leave while he speaks to Barnsley about their vacant managerial position. That is bound to have an unsettling effect on the side, and with Chesterfield coming into this game on the back of a 5-1 away win there is every chance of an upset. Rotherham are another lay.

LAY Rotherham @ 2.32 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

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Liverpool v Aston Villa – Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes) – 2 points

Hull v Spurs

Spurs started excellently and will be keen to maintain that form. Hull were unlucky against Chelsea, but it was a poor performance from the Londoners. Spurs are a cut above quality wise and playing well, and should get something from the game.

Burnley v Man Utd

United are 1/3 in this one, which although clearly a short price is still decent for them. They are always strong against the weaker sides, especially those that try and play football against them. Burnley could struggle.

Birmingham v Portsmouth

Birmingham looked solid against United first up, and could have nicked a draw on another day. Portsmouth are in disarray at the moment, and their deflated players will struggle to get anything from St Andrews.

The treble on these three is 5.21/1 with Paddy Power, and worth a small interest.

Spurs, Man Utd, Birmingham treble @ 5.21/1 (Paddy Power) – 1 point

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The first weekend is always a dodgy one to bet on – pre-season form can be deceptive, and you never know quite how a team has gelled, or otherwise, over the summer. Teams that are odds-on are best avoided, although not necessarily layed… and outsiders could just come up trumps. But you never know! Consequently we haven’t gone overboard with selections for this first weekend of Coca-Cola League football – we’ve gone predominantly for lays, as at this stage the ‘unknown’ is a huge factor and short odds are not to be trusted.

Watford v Doncaster

Doncaster’s late season form would have had them in playoff contention has it run throughout the season, and they seem a strangely long price int the handicap market, and in this game. Despite losing Richie Wellens they have kept the majority of the squad that did well mid to late 08/09, and are probably unfairly fifth favourites for relegation. Watford have also lost an influential player in Priskin, and have new manager Malky Mackay who replaced the Reading bound Brendon Rodgers. This early in the season, with uncertainty surrounding form and fitness, the price of slightly odds against on Watford seems too short.

LAY Watford @ 2.22 (Betfair) – 2 points liability

Reading v Notts Forest

Reading struggled hugely at home last season, particularly in front of goal – they only scored three in their last ten games there, and that was a prime reason for their failure to go up automatically. Forest have strengthened significantly in the summer, and are many peoples’ picks as an outside promotion chance. Billy Davies is a hugely successful manager at this level, and will ensure he has his side primed and ready for this tough test. They will not want to get off to a losing start – and we think they can avoid it. Goal-shy Reading, at around even money, are another short home lay.

LAY Reading @ 2.02 (Betfair) – 2 points liability

West Brom v Newcastle

In our Championship preview (see below) we discussed the relative merits of Newcastle and West Brom as co-favourites for the title. We heavily favoured the Baggies in that – and will stick to that here. Having kept the nucleus of the team that was promoted, then relegated, and with Newcastle in complete disarray, the odds against appeals.

West Brom @ 5/4 (Betfred, Paddy Power, SkyBet) – 1.5 points

Brighton v Walsall

Brighton are another home team at short odds, and in our minds another lay. Added to the early season uncertainty is the uncertainty surrounding their squad – so many new player are bound to take time to gel. Walsall on the other hand have had a relatively stable preseason with Chris Hutchings having plenty of time to organise. At odds on, Brighton are just too short.

LAY Brighton @ 2.02 (Betfair) – 2 points

Notts County v Bradford

Everyone knows about Notts County, about Sven, about the investment… but that will take time. They have added to their squad but not overhauled it, and they were not challengers last term. Bradford, on the other hand, were – and are tough first game opposition for the revitalised Nottingham club. Against a decent League 2 side County are just to short, and in our minds another lay.

LAY Notts County @ 2.08 (Betfair) – 2 points

Torquay v Chesterfield

Teams promoted from the BSP tend to fare well in League Two – just look at Exeter. Torquay are far better managed, run and organised compared to when they went down, and are decent value at home to get off to a winning start against Chesterfield, who ha an erratic away record last season (10 wins nine losses). Torquay will be pumped up and determined.

Torquay @ 6/4 (Coral) – 1 point

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