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Reading host Burnley tonight in the second leg of the Championship play-off semi-final. Owen Coyle’s side currently lead 1-0 from a slightly fortuitous win in the first leg, so Reading need a victory to progress and face Sheffield United in the final. Remember, away goals do not count in the play-offs.

But a Reading victory is easier said than done. Their home form has been abject – they are without a win at the Madejski since January 27th. It has been a bizarre turnaround; prior to that victory they won 13 of 16 home games – after it they lost five of eight, and drew the other three.

There is a simple explanation for this; London Irish. They play their home games at the Madejski, too, and the pitch has gradually deteriorated over the season, particularly over the winter months, and Reading’s home form has paralleled the decline. Then, it became a mental thing; they couldn’t win at home, culminating in a home deeat to Birmingham which denied them automatic promotion.

Against a vibrant Burnely side on the back of an excellent season, there is much to suggest another home failure is in order. And as Reading can be laid at odds-on, they make an extremely attractive selection.

LAY Reading @ 1.95 (Betfair) – 1 Point Liability