Everton v BATE

We all know Everton’s struggles this season – they have an injury list as long as Marouane Fellaini’s arm. But they’ve already qualified for the next stage of the Europa league, rendering their game with BATE (who are no mugs, getting two Champions League draws with Juventus last season) a dead rubber. Consequently Moyes has already announced he will be playing a youth/reserve side – and BATE should have more than enough to at least avoid defeat.

LAY Everton @ 1.85 (Betfair) – 2 points liability

Man United and Chelsea both play tonight; the former against a Portsmouth side in decent form, the latter in a prequel to the FA Cup Final, against Everton.

We can expect both games to be tight; neither Chelsea nor Everton will want to lose and give the other a psychological advantage going into the domestic final, whereas United will be desperate for three points after Liverpool’s slip up; and their moduc operandi when needing a win has been a solid 1-0. Portsmouth are no pushovers either, unbeaten in five and only conceding four goals.

Under goals looks the way to go in both of these games; and with decent odds on in both, the double offers good value.

Man United v Portsmouth under 2.5 goals @ Evens (1/1) – Paddy Power

Chelsea v Everton under 2.5 goals @ 5/6 (Paddy Power)

Double pays 3.66 – 1 point

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Premiership

Two sides stand out in the Premiership this weekend – Aston Villa, who rested most of their first team against CSKA Moscow and are home to a Stoke side who travel terribly, and Everton, who are performing well under Moyes again, with only one loss in fourteen. Their very recent form may look a little sketchy but consider that they have played Villa, Man Utd, Liverpool three times, and Arsenal in their last eight and it gives their run a far better complexion. Neither side offer outstanding value, with Villa trading at around 4/9 and Everton at 1/2, but doubling the two gives odds against which represents decent value.

Everton and Villa double @ 1/2 and 4/9 (pays 2.16 as a double) (Betfred) – 1 point

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Arsenal v Everton

We are all aware of Everton’s defensive stinginess – especially Rafa Benitez – since they lost all their strikers. Since a rough patch in October they have only conceded more than one in a game once in sixteen matches – and thirteen of those sixteen have seen under 2.5 goals.

Arsenal have been unusually frugal recently, too, going over 2.5 only three times in their last eleven games. They have been relatively tight at the back, and blunt in attack, lacking creativity in the absence of Fabregas and goals with the out of form Adebayor.

So, you can’t really see Everton scoring (other than a Tim Cahill header from a corner of course!) or conceding too many – so necessarily Arsenal will struggle for goals but should keep it tight at the back.

Everything in this game points to under 2.5 goals.

Arsenal v Everton – Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (888sport, BlueSq, Victor Chandler) – 2 points