The key to the Carling Cup is picking which top sides rest players and could be vulnerable, and which will take it ’seriously’ and put out full strength teams, making their price attractive.

One side that will definitely be gunning for the trophy are Man City. They have no European distractions and a big squad, and against a Fulham side that Roy Hodgson has said will already rest players, and are poor away from home, the 4/9 on offer in places is appealing.

Chelsea are a slightly different proposition – they may rest some of their stars (Drogba for example) but Joe Cole and Zuri Zhirkov come in, and they should have far too much for QPR, however much the away side are ‘up for it’.

The double comes up best priced at SkyBet, paying a combined 1.71 (Chelsea 2/9 and Man City 2/5)

Man City and Chelsea Double @ 1.71 (SkyBet) – 2 points

Password protection removed 14/09 @ 14.57

Mark Robins’ move from Rotherham to Barnsley is the catalyst for our first two selections:

Rotherham v Morecambe

Rotherham will be reeling from the departure of their manager, who was creating a solid outfit. His influence will be stamped all over the club, and they could suffer in his wake. No doubt he will have spoken to various team members about their departure too, unsettling them further. Morecambe will sense weakness and although only ended up with a draw, their three goal bonanza against Rochdale will give them confidence. Rotherham are far too short at 1.66, and a definite lay.

LAY Rotherham @ 1.66 (Betfair) – 2 points liability

Watford v Barnsley

Tutored under Sir Alex Ferguson, Robins is a strong personality. Expect him to have a positive influence immediately he joins Barnsley. With his appointment their momentum should be enough to at least avoid defeat against Watford, who can be laid at slight odds against.

LAY Watford @ 2.1 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Stoke v Chelsea

Stoke are consistently underestimated, particularly at home. They have a great record (behind only the Big Four last season) and are more than capable of giving the big sides a scare. Chelsea are very mechanical at the moment, swwping all before them, but can struggle for a spark of invention on occasion. They are 4/9 away, which is very short, and worth laying for a small stake.

LAY Chelsea @ 1.43 (Betfair) – 1 point liability

Portsmouth v Bolton

Two sides short on invention without a win between them all season (seven games in total). Both will be determined not to lose this, and it is likely to be scrappy and low quality. 0-0 is tempting – but we’ll play under 2.5 as the odd goal could nick it.

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 (SkyBet, Stan James, BetFred) – 2 points

Man United and Chelsea both play tonight; the former against a Portsmouth side in decent form, the latter in a prequel to the FA Cup Final, against Everton.

We can expect both games to be tight; neither Chelsea nor Everton will want to lose and give the other a psychological advantage going into the domestic final, whereas United will be desperate for three points after Liverpool’s slip up; and their moduc operandi when needing a win has been a solid 1-0. Portsmouth are no pushovers either, unbeaten in five and only conceding four goals.

Under goals looks the way to go in both of these games; and with decent odds on in both, the double offers good value.

Man United v Portsmouth under 2.5 goals @ Evens (1/1) – Paddy Power

Chelsea v Everton under 2.5 goals @ 5/6 (Paddy Power)

Double pays 3.66 – 1 point