It’s all gone quiet over here during the summer, with betting opportunities few and far between in the absence of football. We can’t wait for the start of the new season and the chance to reverse our recent tipping form! In the meantime, we’ve been studying form and fitness in the run-up to the Ashes, and here is our in depth preview.

England v Australia

The Ashes starts tomorrow, with the first test at Cardiff on what is expected to be a turning pitch. Just how much it turns will likely dictate team selection, with England going for one of Panesar and Onions alongside Swann, Anderson, Broad and Flintoff. Australia’s Nathan Hauritz will also be sweating. The absence of Brett Lee, definitely out for the first test but potentially for longer, is a huge blow to the Aussies – he looked dangerous in the warm-up game against the Lions and has the experience and stomach for a fight. Without him they seem to lack a bit of that Aussie ruthlessness and competitiveness – but never write them off.

Looking at the teams, they seem fairly well matched. Katich and Hughes v Strauss and Cook, Ponting v Pieterson, Hussey, North and Clarke v Bopara, Pieterson and Collingwood, Johnson and Lee v Anderson and Broad, Prior v Haddin… the only area England have an edge is in the spin department, with Swann and Panesar both better options that Hauritz; although North and Katich can both bowl competently. England also, obviously, have home advantage – and go into the series in better form. The Aussies struggled in their warm ups, and none of their batsmen are in vinatage form – England on the other had appear to have turned the corner after the West Indies debacle, and all of Strauss, Cook, and Bopara are getting runs. Pietersen is the only worry – but you have to back him to come good.

Australia are strong favourites with the bookies – but considering the above, we just don’t buy that. Yes, they are Australia, etc etc – but player for player thay have no obvious advantage, they lack a spinner, their fiercest bowler is injured, many of their batsmen have poor records in England – at around even money (they have drifted slightly since the injury to Lee) they are nothing but a lay.

LAY Australia (Series Betting) @ 2.1(Betfair) – 2 point liability

It’s also probably worth a nibble at the correct score, again this has come in slightly but 3/1 England represents a touch of value.

England to win 3-1 @ 14 (Betfair) – 0.5 points

Batsmen

There are often good prices to be had in series batsmen markets; over that long a period, the cream often rises to the top. Looking around, though, that doesn’t really seem to be the case here. For England, Pietersen is their best bat and rightly favourite – but at 5/2, prohibitively so. However, he puts enough doubt in the mind when following other leading batsmen (Strauss, Cook) so as to avoid them at low prices. Australia’s market is different, with no stand out favourite, but Ponting, Hussey, Hughes, Katich and Clarke all 5/1 or less. Too unpredictable, and not enough value.

Verdict: No bet

Bowlers

Mitchell Johnson is as short as Evens for Australia – but, like Pietersen in England’s batting, that’s too short and his competitors aren’t long enough. For England, James Anderson is favourite at 2/1 – that is almost a lay, as any of Broad, Swann or Flintoff could outbowl him – but Anderson is on fire at the moment so we’ll leave this one too.

However, one bet stands out in the Top Series Bowler market – and that is Graeme Swann. He is in excellent form, with plenty of test wickets over the past few months, and as the only recognised spinner likely to play all the matches has a great chance if there are a couple of turning pitches.

Graeme Swann Top Series Bowler @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) – 1 point

Others

The bookmakers have been quite imaginative with their markets and there are a wealth of things to trawl through. The best we have found is:

Highest Individual Score

An interesting one, this – the one to follow being Phillip Hughes, the young Australian opening sensation. Although found out by Harmison with a couple of short balls recently, if he gets in on a docile track he can cart the bowlers to all areas. As Graeme Smith proved a few summers back, belligerent openers can make hay against England when their heads drop and things stop happening – and you have to fancy Hughes to do that in one of the games. At 7/1, he represents value.

Phillip Hughes Highest Individual Score @ 7/1 (BetFred, Stan James, Hills) – 1 point

It’s also worth a very small stake on the double, Hughes Highest Individual Score and Swann Top Bowler – BetFred are offering the double at 55/1 (6/1 and 7/1 respectively). 0.25 points.