Wolfsburg v Man Utd

Wolfsburg have been tipped up in many places for this game – but there looks to be a more obvious bet in this game. They are strong going forward, and weak at the back – and everyone knows about Man United’s defensive problems. With Dzeko and Grafite likely to terrorise Ferguson’s two makeshift centre-backs, yet with United still possessing attacking strength, over 2.5 goals looks the play.

Over 2.5 goals @ 5/6 (Widely Available) – 2 points

The Championship

Ipswich are now 8 unbeaten (albeit with 6 draws) but are steadily rising, and at home against struggling Peterborough look decent value at slight odds on. Boro go into their game with Blackpool on a high after smashing five past QPR at the weekend, and around 7/10 is attractive at the Riverside. Finally, tomorrow, Newcastle are in terrific form with six consecutive wins after a slight wobble. It’s difficult to see beyond them taking 3 points from struggling Coventry.

Combining these in a multiple provides the best odds at 5.52 with both Ladbrokes and 888sport.

Ipswich @ 8/11, Boro @ 4/6 and Newcastle @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes and 888Sport) – 2 points

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Manchester United take on Wolfsburg tonight in what should be an entertaining encounter. Wolfsburg have the prolific strikefore of Dzeko and Grafite and United have looked far from secure at the back so far this season. United’s home CL record is not to be underestimated (they have not lost since February 2005!) but Wolfsburg will be a threat. It’s a choice between both teams to score at evens (Coral) and over 2.5 goals at a best price 4/6. That second price is slightly skewed by United’s favouritism – so we’ll take value on Wolfsburg scoring.

Man Utd and Wolfsburg both sides to score @ Evens (Coral) – 2 points

Nottingham Forest v Scunthorpe

Forest have struggled at home this season, losing three times already, and will be desperate to turn this around. They have tightened up at the back (conceding only four goals in their last five games) and with Rob Earnshaw returning for this one will hope to start scoring at the other end. Scunthorpe are an unpredictable side but have doubts over influential striker Gary Hooper, whose absence will severely blunt them. This could be a tight encounter, with Scunthorpe playing for a draw – and under 2.5 goals looks the bet.

Forest v Scunthorpe under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (widely available) – 2 points

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As you will have noticed as a Wakuba subscriber, we have focussed on lays this season. This is both because early season form is unreliable and leads to false prices, and because, generally speaking, they offer better value. And it has started to pay dividends – we are coming to the end of a very profitable week. Here are our bets for the weekend – with lays very much the theme again.

Bolton v Stoke

Stoke are a Wakuba favourite – they continue to be underestimated by the bookies, particularly at home, and we were hugey unlucky to miss out on them holding Chelsea last week. They are weaker away – but with their new signings and strong form so far they should have enough to avoid defeat to Bolton side who have yet to convince and were lucky to get a first victory last time out against Portsmouth.

LAY Bolton @ 2.26 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Southampton v Yeovil

Southampton have struggled massively this season, without a win in their first seven matches. As such it is a mystery why they are chalked up SO short against Yeovil who, while admittedly not the best side in the division, have shown better early season form than the Saints. Southampton might get off the mark in this one – but the price is false.

LAY Southampton @ 1.69 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Chesterfield v Macclesfield

Another side that are chalked up far too short at home. Chesterfield have not won in their last four league matches, and are struggling a little. Macclesfield have lost only to high flyers Crewe and Rotherham so far, and got a creditable draw against Barnet last time out. Again Chesterfield could win – but again are falsely short and must be laid.

LAY Chesterfield @ 1.74 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Darlington v Bournemouth

Bournemouth are odds on to win away at Darlington – and that raises an eyebrow in any game in this division. Darlington are winless in the league this season but are unbeaten in their last two home games – and could continue that record against the high flyers, especially as the Cherries have lost two of their last three away.

LAY Bournemouth @ 1.9 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Morecambe v Notts County

It is with a little trepidation that we oppose Notts County, as they have been irresistable at times. However, at others they have struggled – and Morecambe have a good record against the top sides in the division at home. Another short price that can be laid.

LAY Notts County @ 1.96 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

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Champions League and Championship tonight – and it’s the latter where value stands out.

Derby v Barnsley

We backed Barnsley to avoid defeat in Mark Robins’ first game on Saturday, but Watford nicked the odd goal that gave them a narrow win. Now Robins has had more time to work with the players his influence should be felt further, and for a second successive away game we are going to back them to avoid defeat against an out of form home side. Derby have lost their last two matches yet are odds on against the basement boys – Barnsley can overturn those odds and deny Clough a much needed victory.

LAY Derby @ 1.91 (Betfair) 2 point liability

Ipswich v Forest

Ipswich have had a terrible start to the season, with four losses and a draw in their first five. Forest, unbeaten since the opening day, continue to be underrated by the bookies despite an antepost run on them for promotion. They have strengthened significantly and are too long here – more prevalently, Ipswich are far too short.

LAY Ipswich @ 2.3 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

QPR v Palace

Another to finish off a trio of short home lays – QPR are a mediocre side, their only win coming at home to Scunthorpe – and after Neil Warnock laid into his Palace side after their 4-0 defeat to the same side (Scunny) we expect a reaction here.

LAY QPR @ 2.2 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

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Mark Robins’ move from Rotherham to Barnsley is the catalyst for our first two selections:

Rotherham v Morecambe

Rotherham will be reeling from the departure of their manager, who was creating a solid outfit. His influence will be stamped all over the club, and they could suffer in his wake. No doubt he will have spoken to various team members about their departure too, unsettling them further. Morecambe will sense weakness and although only ended up with a draw, their three goal bonanza against Rochdale will give them confidence. Rotherham are far too short at 1.66, and a definite lay.

LAY Rotherham @ 1.66 (Betfair) – 2 points liability

Watford v Barnsley

Tutored under Sir Alex Ferguson, Robins is a strong personality. Expect him to have a positive influence immediately he joins Barnsley. With his appointment their momentum should be enough to at least avoid defeat against Watford, who can be laid at slight odds against.

LAY Watford @ 2.1 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Stoke v Chelsea

Stoke are consistently underestimated, particularly at home. They have a great record (behind only the Big Four last season) and are more than capable of giving the big sides a scare. Chelsea are very mechanical at the moment, swwping all before them, but can struggle for a spark of invention on occasion. They are 4/9 away, which is very short, and worth laying for a small stake.

LAY Chelsea @ 1.43 (Betfair) – 1 point liability

Portsmouth v Bolton

Two sides short on invention without a win between them all season (seven games in total). Both will be determined not to lose this, and it is likely to be scrappy and low quality. 0-0 is tempting – but we’ll play under 2.5 as the odd goal could nick it.

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 (SkyBet, Stan James, BetFred) – 2 points

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Oldham v Hartlepool (Tonight)

Hartlepool have already lost three games this season – but drilling deeper, they were against Charlton, Bristol City, and Norwich, all of whom are expected to finish near the top of the division. Oldham have injury problems, particularly defensively, and also a poor home record – they have not won at Boundary Park for 13 games. Bearing this in mind, quotes about the home side look too short.

LAY Oldham @ 2.12 (Betfair) – 2 points (Liability)

Crewe v Macclesfield

The relative league positions of these sides (6th and 19th) have a big bearing on the prices in this one (around 1.65 and 5.0). That is a huge disparity, and probably not justified by a gap of only four points. Teams heavily odds on are always a tempting lay in League Two, especially when there seems little reasoning for it.

LAY Crewe @ 1.73 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Bristol Rovers v Millwall

Bristol Rovers have not let the loss of Ricky Lambert hold them back and have made a decent start to the season. Millwall have been unconvincing, but more importantly have huge injury problems. Rovers have also won 3 of the last 4 meetings between the sides. At 13/10 there is some appeal on the home side.

Bristol Rovers @ 13/10 (Bet365) – 1 point

Rotherham v Chesterfield

Rotherham’s manager Mark Robins has been placed on gardening leave while he speaks to Barnsley about their vacant managerial position. That is bound to have an unsettling effect on the side, and with Chesterfield coming into this game on the back of a 5-1 away win there is every chance of an upset. Rotherham are another lay.

LAY Rotherham @ 2.32 (Betfair) – 2 point liability