A rare foray into boxing this week, as Manny Pacquiao takes on Miguel Cotto. On face value the two boxers seem to be fairly evenly matched, and as such the 7/2 on Cotto to win by KO, TKO or Disqualification looks too big. Based solely on that, it’s worth a small interest.

Cotto to win by KO, TKO or Disqualification @ 7/2 (Widely Available) – 1 point

Mark Robins has had a marked effect on Barnsley, hauling them off the bottom to the heady heights of 18th, where they are now level on points with Sheffield United. The Blades have a horrendous injury list:

Kyle Walker damaged ankle ligaments against Newcastle and is out, while a calf strain has shorn Blackwell of the services of Jordan Stewart.

Gary Naysmith, Derek Geary (both knee), Richard Cresswell (ribs), Jamie Ward (broken wrist), Nick Montgomery (knee), Lee Williamson (back), Andrew Davies (knee), Andrew Taylor (thigh) and Paddy Kenny (drugs ban)

And considering the recent form, Barnsley at 13/8 look a solid home bet.

Barnsley @ 13/8 (Boylesports, William Hill) – 2 points

Apologies for the hiatus… we’re back with selections from this weekend’s football:

Sheffield Wednesday v QPR

Wednesday bounced back well from a humiliating defeat to Watford by claiming a draw against Bristol City with a squad depleted by swine flu. There is now hot competition for places, and with their home record QPR face a tough task to take all three points, and look underpriced at 6/4 – particularly as they have suffered a dip in form and results.

LAY QPR @ 2.62 (2 point liability)

Reading v Ipswich

A basement battle at the Majedski, with both sides coming into this after a rare win – Reading’s being their first in five, and Ipswich (finally) getting their first of the season. Ipswich’s position is somewhat misleading, and they should kick on after getting their first 3 points. Reading are flimsy and struggle to score goals, so the 21/10 quotes from Boyles and Coral have some appeal.

Ipswich @ 21/10 (Boyles, Coral) – 1 point

Chelsea v Man Utd

Arguably the biggest game o the season so far, and with United shakey and unconvincing, a Chelsea victory is on the cards. They are on a great run of form, scoring goals aind winning, and unless United really pull out something special they will be up against it. Although Chelsea look a little short at first glance, all things considered it still represents value.

Chelsea @ 11/10 (Ladbrokes) – 1 point

Burnley v Wigan

Burnley are this season’s Stoke – underrated at home because of how poor they are away. Wigan are exactly the type of side that they could roll over in the cauldron Turf Moor. Considering the relative home and away records, 6/4 is a stand out price.

Burnley @ 6/4 – 1 point (Bet365, Skybet, Stan James)

Newcastle v Doncaster

Doncaster are exactly the kind of side Newcastle will hate playing in the Championship. They keep it tight and keep the ball, and could frustrate the Geordies. At strong odds on Newcastle are worth a lay – and expect this to be a hard fought encounter with few goals.

LAY Newcastle @ 1.61 (Betfair) – 1 point (Liability)

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Widely available) – 1 point

Four of the ‘Big Six’ have tough away fixtures this weekend, and there are reasons to oppose all of them.

Sunderland v Liverpool

Sunderland will by buoyed by their performance against Man Utd, and Liverpool have injury worries over Torres, Gerrard, and Kuyt. Obviously without those key players they are easier to oppose but even with them, against an impressive Sunderland side, odds on is too short.

LAY Liverpool @ 1.98 (Betfair) – 1 point liability

Portsmouth v Spurs

Pompey got their first win of the season last time out, and with the stability brought to the club with new funding, should be on a high. Furthermore, if there is an side they will want a result against, it’s Spurs – several ex-Pompey players are in their ranks (likewise the other way round in fact) and of course there is the ‘Arry factor. The whole club will be set on preventing him taking three point from Fratton Park, and again at odds on there is value opposing them.

LAY Spurs @ 1.91 (Betfair) – 1 point liability

Aston Villa v Chelsea

Villa have a strong home record against Chelsea over the past few seasons, and have already beaten one of the Big Four this season (Liverpool, at Anfield) proving they have the mettle. After an international break there is always some uncertainty, and another odds on quote about Chelsea again looks too short.

LAY Chelsea @ 1.84 (Betfair) – 1 point liability

Wigan v Man City

Wigan are somewhat of a bogey team for Man City, with Mark Hughes’ men winning only one of the last eight league meetings between the two. Of course Man City are a somewhat different proposition nowadays, but do not merit the heaviest odds on price of all the Premier League teams.

LAY Man City @ 1.82 (Betfair) – 1 point liability

We’ll also have a little play on the multiples market with these four – Betfair’s LAY multiples market offer the following prices:

Liverpool @ 2.04

Spurs @ 1.98

Chelsea @ 1.89

Man City @ 1.88

Four trebles there, we’ll play 0.25 points on each.

With qualification finely poised, we’ve picked out a couple of mutually suitable draw from the weekend fixtures:

Denmark v Sweden

Portugal are in grave danger of not qualifying, and a draw between these two Scandivanian countries pushes Ronaldo further away and each of them closer. Whether or not there is any geographical collusion, a result that suits both parties has to be likely, and at 9/4 is worth backing.

Denmark v Sweden Draw @ 9/4 (Widely available) – 1 point

Ireland v Italy

A draw for Italy would be enough for them to qualify, and no-one is better at playing for one. Ireland would be virtually in the play-offs with that result too – again it suits both parties.

Ireland v Italy Draw @ 2/1 (Betfred) – 1 point

And we’ll take a small double – Betfred go best price on both (9/4 and 2/1.

Draw Double @ 9.75 (Betfred) – 0.5 points

Cheltenham v Notts County

We’ve opposed Notts County a couple of times already this season, citing their inconsistency away from home, but have picked the wrong off days. We’re sticking with that here – a shade of odds on is just too short in this division for a side that has lost three of its five games so far.

LAY Notts County @ 2.08 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

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Manchester United take on Wolfsburg tonight in what should be an entertaining encounter. Wolfsburg have the prolific strikefore of Dzeko and Grafite and United have looked far from secure at the back so far this season. United’s home CL record is not to be underestimated (they have not lost since February 2005!) but Wolfsburg will be a threat. It’s a choice between both teams to score at evens (Coral) and over 2.5 goals at a best price 4/6. That second price is slightly skewed by United’s favouritism – so we’ll take value on Wolfsburg scoring.

Man Utd and Wolfsburg both sides to score @ Evens (Coral) – 2 points

Nottingham Forest v Scunthorpe

Forest have struggled at home this season, losing three times already, and will be desperate to turn this around. They have tightened up at the back (conceding only four goals in their last five games) and with Rob Earnshaw returning for this one will hope to start scoring at the other end. Scunthorpe are an unpredictable side but have doubts over influential striker Gary Hooper, whose absence will severely blunt them. This could be a tight encounter, with Scunthorpe playing for a draw – and under 2.5 goals looks the bet.

Forest v Scunthorpe under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (widely available) – 2 points

Barnsley v West Brom

We’ve followed Barnsley a couple of times since Mark Robins took over, and he has brought some much needed solidity and organisation to Oakwell. West Brom go into this on the back of a surprise defeat to Palace and a disciplined Barnsley side are capable of making it two games without a win. At odds on away from home the Baggies are too short.

LAY West Brom at 1.78 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Peterborough v Plymouth

Plymouth are on an horrific run and though odds on at home in the Championship is always a tad risky, the relative motivation and form of these two sides the 8/11 available on Peterborough actually represents some value.

Peterborough @ 8/11 (Totesport, Stan James) – 2 points

Sheffield United v Ipswich

Roy Keane and Ipswich’s troubles are well documented – they are winless in the Championship and the pressure is mounting – he has said so himself. His words may galvanise his side into belated action – and though form is not the best indicator here a price of 1.63 is false on Sheffield United against what is essentially a decent side.

LAY Sheffield United @ 1.65 (Betfair) 2 point liability

Bristol City v Blackpool

Bristol City have home advantage, whereas Blackpool are in good form (four wins from five in the league) – this game is tough to call and the wise money is on the draw.

DRAW @ 5/2 (Skybet) – 1 point

Lincoln v Notts County

County are a team we’ve opposed a couple of times this season, and though they have been strong at home they have been inconsistent away (losing their last three games). Consequently odds around even money are not attractive, especially with ‘new manager’ syndrome surrounding Chris Sutton.

LAY Notts County @ 2.06 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

AZ v Standard Liege

Although AZ have a good home record in Europe the majority of those games have been in the UEFA cup. Standard have put in some impressive performances (primarily against English sides) and are being underestimated in this game. A lay of the home side is the way to go.

LAY AZ @ 2.04 (Betfair) – 1.5 point liability
Standard @ 4.3 (Betfair) – 0.5 points