After an unsuccessful flirtation with cricket over the summer Wakuba was back with a bang at the weekend – four of our six selections won.

We are approaching this season with new researchers and a new research methodology, so be sure to stick with us and watch the profits accrue.

Password protection removed, 10.04 10/08

The first weekend is always a dodgy one to bet on – pre-season form can be deceptive, and you never know quite how a team has gelled, or otherwise, over the summer. Teams that are odds-on are best avoided, although not necessarily layed… and outsiders could just come up trumps. But you never know! Consequently we haven’t gone overboard with selections for this first weekend of Coca-Cola League football – we’ve gone predominantly for lays, as at this stage the ‘unknown’ is a huge factor and short odds are not to be trusted.

Watford v Doncaster

Doncaster’s late season form would have had them in playoff contention has it run throughout the season, and they seem a strangely long price int the handicap market, and in this game. Despite losing Richie Wellens they have kept the majority of the squad that did well mid to late 08/09, and are probably unfairly fifth favourites for relegation. Watford have also lost an influential player in Priskin, and have new manager Malky Mackay who replaced the Reading bound Brendon Rodgers. This early in the season, with uncertainty surrounding form and fitness, the price of slightly odds against on Watford seems too short.

LAY Watford @ 2.22 (Betfair) – 2 points liability

Reading v Notts Forest

Reading struggled hugely at home last season, particularly in front of goal – they only scored three in their last ten games there, and that was a prime reason for their failure to go up automatically. Forest have strengthened significantly in the summer, and are many peoples’ picks as an outside promotion chance. Billy Davies is a hugely successful manager at this level, and will ensure he has his side primed and ready for this tough test. They will not want to get off to a losing start – and we think they can avoid it. Goal-shy Reading, at around even money, are another short home lay.

LAY Reading @ 2.02 (Betfair) – 2 points liability

West Brom v Newcastle

In our Championship preview (see below) we discussed the relative merits of Newcastle and West Brom as co-favourites for the title. We heavily favoured the Baggies in that – and will stick to that here. Having kept the nucleus of the team that was promoted, then relegated, and with Newcastle in complete disarray, the odds against appeals.

West Brom @ 5/4 (Betfred, Paddy Power, SkyBet) – 1.5 points

Brighton v Walsall

Brighton are another home team at short odds, and in our minds another lay. Added to the early season uncertainty is the uncertainty surrounding their squad – so many new player are bound to take time to gel. Walsall on the other hand have had a relatively stable preseason with Chris Hutchings having plenty of time to organise. At odds on, Brighton are just too short.

LAY Brighton @ 2.02 (Betfair) – 2 points

Notts County v Bradford

Everyone knows about Notts County, about Sven, about the investment… but that will take time. They have added to their squad but not overhauled it, and they were not challengers last term. Bradford, on the other hand, were – and are tough first game opposition for the revitalised Nottingham club. Against a decent League 2 side County are just to short, and in our minds another lay.

LAY Notts County @ 2.08 (Betfair) – 2 points

Torquay v Chesterfield

Teams promoted from the BSP tend to fare well in League Two – just look at Exeter. Torquay are far better managed, run and organised compared to when they went down, and are decent value at home to get off to a winning start against Chesterfield, who ha an erratic away record last season (10 wins nine losses). Torquay will be pumped up and determined.

Torquay @ 6/4 (Coral) – 1 point

As per our post below, we’re not going to do a full Premiership preview – it will be one of the Big Four who win it (Man City rank outsiders in our opinion) and three of Burnley, Birmingham, Wolves, and Hull will probably go down. We’re not advocates of tying up funds for an entire season on short odds so unless something is outstanding value we’ll stick to short term. Consequently, we’ve not advised any particular bets for any of the divisional antepost markets, but our thoughts are below if you want to factor them into your divisional yankee…

The Championship

Over the past few seasons the Championship has become one of the most competitive leagues in the world, with 24 teams all of relatively similar standard fighting it out in attritional game after attritional game. Managers and signings that turn out to be good, injuries, luck… all can have a strong influence. So you really can’t rule anyone out, although it is perhaps slightly fanciful to think Barnsley or Scunthorpe will win it.

That is why, in the ‘To Be Promoted’ market, 19 of the 24 sides are 16/1 or less to be promoted – and Scunthorpe are the longest price to finish in the Top 6 at (again) just 16/1. Contrast that with the Premiership, where Burnley are 50/1 to finish Top 6 (remember there are only 20 teams), and you can see the difference. Any one side can beat any other.

Newcastle are currently favourites for the title in most places – as short as 5/1 in places – which seems absurd considering the turmoil on and off the field. Yes, they have good players on paper – but if they cannot perform in the Premier League its unlikely they will fancy a midweek trip to Plymouth. Of course if a takeover is completed they could well have an influx of money designed to bring a quick return to the Premier League – but that is a big if.

Where Newcastle aren’t favourites, West Brom are, and this seems a far better pick. They have the nucleus of the side that went down last season, which is also the team that won the division so comprehensively the year before. In Roberto Di Matteo they have a promising young manager who did well at MK Dons, and will stay true to Tony Mowbray’s footballing principles. At a best price 13/2, if our money was going anywhere, it would be on the Baggies.

Other teams to consider include Boro, the other team to be relegated – they’ve remarkably kept most of their good players, and though Tuncay will probably join Downing in exiting the North East, they still have good players and an excellent crop of youth players.

Roy Keane’s excellent Championship record and the money available at Ipswich makes them a worthy consideration, and the teams who were there or thereabouts last season, like Reading, Cardiff, Preston, and Sheffield United are all worth considering.

After a summer spending spree Nottingham Forest have shortened from 40/1 to 25/1, and could be a decent each way punt even at that reduced price. In Billy Davies they have a canny manager with an excellent record at this level, and the word is they are making a concerted push for the Premier League.

As we said, any team could have a good season and push on – two that stand out are Doncaster, whose end of season form would have taken them into the playoffs over the season (12/1 for top 6) and Nigel Clough’s Derby, although the 3/1 in the same market is very short.

In terms of relegation, in the same way any side could conceivably finish top 6, a lot of sides could be dragged into the mire. It’s difficult to see any of the sides we mentioned as challengers actually getting relegated; but Scunthorpe, Plymouth, Blackpool and Barnsley must be anticipating tough seasons ahead.

Then you have the unknowns; the promoted sides Leicester and Peterborough, Swansea under new manager Paolo Sousa, and teams that could be dark horses like Sheffield Wednesday, Palace, and QPR. Any of these could feature at the top of the table – but also at the bottom!

Now watch one of the few teams we haven’t mentioned streak away at the top of the table…

We don’t think there’s much value in the Premiership antepost betting – with Man City at 13/1 best price then a 140/1 bar, it’s not worth tying up your money for that long. However, if you insist on backing them, or United or Chelsea at very short odds (3.45 and 3.15 respectively) or Liverpool or Arsenal at slightly better, but still tight prices (4.8 and 9.8) – or (staggeringly) someone else -  then make sure you do it with Paddy Power. Details of their offer:

Premier League 2009/10 Enhanced Special
If you back a team to win the Premier League and they win the double (Premier League and FA Cup) Paddy Power will DOUBLE the odds, if they win the treble (League, FA Cup and Champions League) we will TREBLE the odds.

Makes it look slightly better, doesn’t it? You can find the offer here.

Dinamo Moscow v Chelsea

We tipped Chelsea because of their strong home form – but they were turned over, losing 1-0 in Scotland to a Russian side who looked sharper, fitter and better after 15 games of their domestic season. We would have opposed Celtic in Russia anyway (such is the stark contract between home and away form) and their first leg only served to reinforce that. Celtic have not won away in Europe for six years (!) and have never recovered a European tie after losing at home. It’s difficult to pick the right bet – Dinamo appeal at 2.1, but Celtic could get a draw, so we’ll take the 1/2 about Dinamo, Draw No Bet, with Sporting Bet.

Dinamo Moscow (Draw No Bet) @ 1/2 – Sporting Bet – 2 points

Warwickshire v Somerset

Another bet that appeals comes in the County Championship, where Warwickshire take on Somerset. Both sides have strong batting line ups and less appealing bowling attacks – and add to that Edgbaston has seen 17 of the last 21 games as draws, plus variable weather, and the 1/9 on Betfair looks appealing.

Warwickshire v Somerset – Draw @ 1.9 (Betfair) – 2 points

The competitive season kicks off tonight, with the first round of Champions League qualifiers. There are many little known sides competing – but the stand out bet actually comes from these shores – well, Scotland – as Celtic take on Dinamo Moscow at Hampden.

Celtic have been backed into 8/11 from an initial 5/6 – and it is not difficult to see why. Their home form in Europe is excellent, and they come into this game on the back of two encouraging wins in the Wembley Cup (most recently against Spurs, 2-0). Tony Mowbray has re-instilled the attractive football that was gradually being eradicated under Strachan and also brought in a couple of exciting signings – Marc Antoine-Fortune could get a hatful next season. There is a feelgood factor around the club, and a real conviction they can wrestle back the title from Rangers that they should never have lost in the first place.

So to their opponents. Dinamo are in poor form, and subject to terrace abuse after winning only four of their last ten games, including being knocked out of the cup by a lower league side. They are missing a couple of key players to injury also, and have lost the heart of what made them a more fearsome proposition three or four years ago (Danny the most notable).

There are a number of compelling arguments for the Scots, who will be keenly aware they need home advantage due to their poor away form. They are still value at a slightly shortened 8/11.

Celtic @ 8/11 (Boyles, SkyBet, Ladbrokes) – 2 points

Weather is the overriding factor going into the third Test at Edgbaston. With a poor weather forecast the draw has come in to a best priced 5/6, which is not worth backing but also not a lay, as it could be rained off for the majority of the time.

What does stand out, is a bet in the bowler market. We are already on Swann to be top bowler in the series, but he also stands out here. The pitch is expected to offer little for the pace bowlers, meaning not only will Swann be potent but also bowl a lot of overs. Panesar is unlikely to play, so the spin burden will be entirely on the Notts man. He took four wickets in the second innings of the last test, finally finding some form, and is worth backing to continue that here.

Lastly, with conditions likely to be gloomy and overcast, spin at times may be the only option for the bowling side.

Graeme Swann top England bowler @ 9/2 (Stan James) – 1 point

Also, considering this, and the decent form he has been in with the bat, he is also worth consideration in the Man of the Match market.

Graeme Swann Man of the Match @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill) – 0.5 points

St Gallen v Liverpool

Liverpool are in Switzerland for their first pre-season friendly against St Gallen this evening. Rafael Benitez has taken a squad of 24, including many youngsters, and has already asserted all of them will get a game – likely a different side in the second half from the first. The likes of Gerrard, Carragher, new signing Glen Johnson, and more first teamers will start the game – with the youngsters to take over from them. St Gallen are no mugs, they beat Basel 2-0 in the Swiss Superleague last time out, and won the Swiss Premier League last season. They are bang up for this game – the 30,000 seater stadium is apparently sold out – and will certainly give Liverpool a game, probably more in the second half than the first considering Liverpool’s expected changes. The HT/FT market, with two different Liverpool sides, is worth a small interest.

Liverpool HT/St Gallen FT @ 66/1 (Bet365) – 0.25 points

Liverpool HT/Draw FT @ 20/1 (Bet365) – 0.25 points

Brentford v Ipswich

Ipswich, led by natural winner Roy Keane, look a tad overpriced to take a victory from Griffin Park. They are taking a strong squad, and will give a debut to new addition Lee Martin who has signed from Man United. Ipswich ended last season in style, and Keane will want to keep that momentum up – indeed last time out they beat Groleston 8-0! Brentford did win League Two last season, but lost 1-0 to Staines on Saturday and are finding it difficult to get going in the new season.

Ipswich @ 5/4 (SkyBet) – 1 point

The defending hosts India take on South Africa tonight having already been eliminated from the tournament. With their scarily passionate fans at home already burning effigies of the players, they will be desperate to finish the campaign with a win. And they may actually get some help from the Proteas, who have already qualified. It’s possible they may rest players, shuffle the batting order, or even not be totally motivated to win (they could actually face a weaker side if they lose – this will be decided by the SL v NZ game currently in progress).

And India can beat anyone on their day – they, despite their exit, still arguably possess the strongest side in the tournament. If Yuvraj, Pathan and Dhoni fire they can beat anyone… and at 13/10 represent decent value.

India to beat SA @ 13/10 (Sporting Bet) – 1 point