Archive for November, 2009
Weekend Selections
by Wakuba on Nov.27, 2009, under News
FA Cup, Premier League and Championship this weekend – and we have delved into all of them…
Northwich Victoria v Lincoln
Northwich will be bang up for this game and that, allied with Lincoln’s poor form and Chris Sutton’s travails, and their long injury list, and the fact this game is televised – stack up to create some value on the home side.
Northwich @ 9/4 (Betfred) – 2 points
Gillingham v Burton
Gillingham look the strongest bet of the round, playing a Burton side who are struggling, and look particularly vulnerable to Gillingham’s pacey forward line. Even at 4/6 there is value.
Gillingham @ 4/6 (Widely Available) – 2 points
Notts Forest v Doncaster
Forest are a difficult team to break down and haven’t gone over 2.5 goals in their last five matches. Doncaster will struggle to penetrate and everything points to this being low scoring.
Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 (Widely Available) – 2 points
Newcastle v Swansea
Swansea have kept 8 clean sheets in their last 11 games, and will go to St James’ attempting to add to that tally. Newcastle have ground out their results rather than playing teams off the park and this looks like being a tight game.
Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Paddy Power, SkyBet) – 2 points
West Ham v Burnley
This game screams ‘goals’. Two sides with porous defences who aren’t afraid to attack suggests an open game with few inhibitions and no clean sheets.
Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Widely Available) – 2 points
Fulham v Blackburn
by Wakuba on Nov.25, 2009, under Selections
An unpredictable game, this – any one of the three outcomes is possible, particularly considering Fulham’s poor recent form and Blackburn finally finding a result on the road. Considering this, 11/10 is too short on any match eventuality – and that is what a Fulham win is chalked up to be.
LAY Fulham @ 2.18 (Betfair) – 2 point liability
Tuesday Night Picks
by Wakuba on Nov.24, 2009, under Selections
There are Coca-Cola and Champions League games this midweek, and here are our best selections from them…
Bournemouth v Dagenham and Redbridge
We opposed Bournemouth against Torquay last time out, only for them to get a breakaway clincher with Torquay dominating. Dagenham have been going great guns this season and their recent defeat to Rochdale seems to have inflated their price somewhat – 11/4 seems a little big.
Dagenham @ 11/4 (widely available) – 2 points
Fiorentina v Lyon
A draw suits both of these teams, and in that situation usually represents good value. This is no exception.
Fiorentina v Lyon Draw @ 23/20 (Totesport) – 2 points
Debrecen v Liverpool
In one sense the pressure is off Liverpool here, as they are reliant on a favourable result in the Fiorentina game. However, the number of goals they score in this game directly impacts how many they need in their next game to ensure qualification should it go their way. They will undoubtedly go for it, and if they do, there is a strong possibility they could destroy Debrecen. The prices reflect that unfortunately, the best bet is arguably:
Liverpool -1.5 @ 1.8 (Betfair) – 2 points
Arsenal v Standard Liege
Arsenal’s home record is outstanding, scoring 33 goals in 10 matches so far this season while conceding only seven. Liege are poor away from home, and have only scored three in their last five. This is likely to be a goalfest; we’ll take the same bet as above.
Arsenal – 1.5 @ 1.83 (Betfair) – 2 points
Wakuba Weekend Selections
by Wakuba on Nov.20, 2009, under Selections
Torquay v Rotherham
League positions are misleading in this one, with Torquay near the bottom and Rotherham near the top. Rotherham are in decline since the departure of Mark Robins, and Torquay are a decent side with a strong home record. They represent excellent value at Plainmoor.
Torquay @ 11/5 (SkyBet) – 2 points
Macclesfield v Bournemouth
Bournemouth’s position is slightly false – with their squad they may well not last the pace. They are always liable to slip up and against a Macclesfield side who aren’t bad at home, opposing them is the way to go.
Macclesfield @ 5/2 (Bet365) – 2 points
Shrewsbury v Bury
Bury are on a great run of form while Shrewsbury are struggling to find the back of the net. On that basis alone around 2/1 looks too big on the away side.
Bury @ 19/10 (Victor Chandler) – 2 points
West Brom v Bristol City
West Brom are a mere five points ahead of Bristol City, which makes the 5/1 on the away side look much too big – especially with their good form and West Brom’s patchiness.
Bristol City @ 5/1 (SkyBet) – 1 point
Thinking outside the Box(ing)
by Wakuba on Nov.13, 2009, under Selections
A rare foray into boxing this week, as Manny Pacquiao takes on Miguel Cotto. On face value the two boxers seem to be fairly evenly matched, and as such the 7/2 on Cotto to win by KO, TKO or Disqualification looks too big. Based solely on that, it’s worth a small interest.
Cotto to win by KO, TKO or Disqualification @ 7/2 (Widely Available) – 1 point
Barnsley v Sheffield United
by Wakuba on Nov.09, 2009, under Selections
Mark Robins has had a marked effect on Barnsley, hauling them off the bottom to the heady heights of 18th, where they are now level on points with Sheffield United. The Blades have a horrendous injury list:
Kyle Walker damaged ankle ligaments against Newcastle and is out, while a calf strain has shorn Blackwell of the services of Jordan Stewart.
Gary Naysmith, Derek Geary (both knee), Richard Cresswell (ribs), Jamie Ward (broken wrist), Nick Montgomery (knee), Lee Williamson (back), Andrew Davies (knee), Andrew Taylor (thigh) and Paddy Kenny (drugs ban)
And considering the recent form, Barnsley at 13/8 look a solid home bet.
Barnsley @ 13/8 (Boylesports, William Hill) – 2 points
Weekend Selections
by Wakuba on Nov.06, 2009, under Selections
Apologies for the hiatus… we’re back with selections from this weekend’s football:
Sheffield Wednesday v QPR
Wednesday bounced back well from a humiliating defeat to Watford by claiming a draw against Bristol City with a squad depleted by swine flu. There is now hot competition for places, and with their home record QPR face a tough task to take all three points, and look underpriced at 6/4 – particularly as they have suffered a dip in form and results.
LAY QPR @ 2.62 (2 point liability)
Reading v Ipswich
A basement battle at the Majedski, with both sides coming into this after a rare win – Reading’s being their first in five, and Ipswich (finally) getting their first of the season. Ipswich’s position is somewhat misleading, and they should kick on after getting their first 3 points. Reading are flimsy and struggle to score goals, so the 21/10 quotes from Boyles and Coral have some appeal.
Ipswich @ 21/10 (Boyles, Coral) – 1 point
Chelsea v Man Utd
Arguably the biggest game o the season so far, and with United shakey and unconvincing, a Chelsea victory is on the cards. They are on a great run of form, scoring goals aind winning, and unless United really pull out something special they will be up against it. Although Chelsea look a little short at first glance, all things considered it still represents value.
Chelsea @ 11/10 (Ladbrokes) – 1 point