Password protection removed 18.33 03/10

Manchester United take on Wolfsburg tonight in what should be an entertaining encounter. Wolfsburg have the prolific strikefore of Dzeko and Grafite and United have looked far from secure at the back so far this season. United’s home CL record is not to be underestimated (they have not lost since February 2005!) but Wolfsburg will be a threat. It’s a choice between both teams to score at evens (Coral) and over 2.5 goals at a best price 4/6. That second price is slightly skewed by United’s favouritism – so we’ll take value on Wolfsburg scoring.

Man Utd and Wolfsburg both sides to score @ Evens (Coral) – 2 points

Nottingham Forest v Scunthorpe

Forest have struggled at home this season, losing three times already, and will be desperate to turn this around. They have tightened up at the back (conceding only four goals in their last five games) and with Rob Earnshaw returning for this one will hope to start scoring at the other end. Scunthorpe are an unpredictable side but have doubts over influential striker Gary Hooper, whose absence will severely blunt them. This could be a tight encounter, with Scunthorpe playing for a draw – and under 2.5 goals looks the bet.

Forest v Scunthorpe under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (widely available) – 2 points

Barnsley v West Brom

We’ve followed Barnsley a couple of times since Mark Robins took over, and he has brought some much needed solidity and organisation to Oakwell. West Brom go into this on the back of a surprise defeat to Palace and a disciplined Barnsley side are capable of making it two games without a win. At odds on away from home the Baggies are too short.

LAY West Brom at 1.78 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Peterborough v Plymouth

Plymouth are on an horrific run and though odds on at home in the Championship is always a tad risky, the relative motivation and form of these two sides the 8/11 available on Peterborough actually represents some value.

Peterborough @ 8/11 (Totesport, Stan James) – 2 points

Sheffield United v Ipswich

Roy Keane and Ipswich’s troubles are well documented – they are winless in the Championship and the pressure is mounting – he has said so himself. His words may galvanise his side into belated action – and though form is not the best indicator here a price of 1.63 is false on Sheffield United against what is essentially a decent side.

LAY Sheffield United @ 1.65 (Betfair) 2 point liability

Bristol City v Blackpool

Bristol City have home advantage, whereas Blackpool are in good form (four wins from five in the league) – this game is tough to call and the wise money is on the draw.

DRAW @ 5/2 (Skybet) – 1 point

Lincoln v Notts County

County are a team we’ve opposed a couple of times this season, and though they have been strong at home they have been inconsistent away (losing their last three games). Consequently odds around even money are not attractive, especially with ‘new manager’ syndrome surrounding Chris Sutton.

LAY Notts County @ 2.06 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

AZ v Standard Liege

Although AZ have a good home record in Europe the majority of those games have been in the UEFA cup. Standard have put in some impressive performances (primarily against English sides) and are being underestimated in this game. A lay of the home side is the way to go.

LAY AZ @ 2.04 (Betfair) – 1.5 point liability
Standard @ 4.3 (Betfair) – 0.5 points

The key to the Carling Cup is picking which top sides rest players and could be vulnerable, and which will take it ’seriously’ and put out full strength teams, making their price attractive.

One side that will definitely be gunning for the trophy are Man City. They have no European distractions and a big squad, and against a Fulham side that Roy Hodgson has said will already rest players, and are poor away from home, the 4/9 on offer in places is appealing.

Chelsea are a slightly different proposition – they may rest some of their stars (Drogba for example) but Joe Cole and Zuri Zhirkov come in, and they should have far too much for QPR, however much the away side are ‘up for it’.

The double comes up best priced at SkyBet, paying a combined 1.71 (Chelsea 2/9 and Man City 2/5)

Man City and Chelsea Double @ 1.71 (SkyBet) – 2 points

Password Protection Removed 22/09 11.26

As you will have noticed as a Wakuba subscriber, we have focussed on lays this season. This is both because early season form is unreliable and leads to false prices, and because, generally speaking, they offer better value. And it has started to pay dividends – we are coming to the end of a very profitable week. Here are our bets for the weekend – with lays very much the theme again.

Bolton v Stoke

Stoke are a Wakuba favourite – they continue to be underestimated by the bookies, particularly at home, and we were hugey unlucky to miss out on them holding Chelsea last week. They are weaker away – but with their new signings and strong form so far they should have enough to avoid defeat to Bolton side who have yet to convince and were lucky to get a first victory last time out against Portsmouth.

LAY Bolton @ 2.26 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Southampton v Yeovil

Southampton have struggled massively this season, without a win in their first seven matches. As such it is a mystery why they are chalked up SO short against Yeovil who, while admittedly not the best side in the division, have shown better early season form than the Saints. Southampton might get off the mark in this one – but the price is false.

LAY Southampton @ 1.69 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Chesterfield v Macclesfield

Another side that are chalked up far too short at home. Chesterfield have not won in their last four league matches, and are struggling a little. Macclesfield have lost only to high flyers Crewe and Rotherham so far, and got a creditable draw against Barnet last time out. Again Chesterfield could win – but again are falsely short and must be laid.

LAY Chesterfield @ 1.74 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Darlington v Bournemouth

Bournemouth are odds on to win away at Darlington – and that raises an eyebrow in any game in this division. Darlington are winless in the league this season but are unbeaten in their last two home games – and could continue that record against the high flyers, especially as the Cherries have lost two of their last three away.

LAY Bournemouth @ 1.9 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Morecambe v Notts County

It is with a little trepidation that we oppose Notts County, as they have been irresistable at times. However, at others they have struggled – and Morecambe have a good record against the top sides in the division at home. Another short price that can be laid.

LAY Notts County @ 1.96 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

A trip to Sofia is a daunting task at the best of times – but for Fulham, with their threadbare squad and upcoming game against Wolves (on Sunday), it is a mountain to climb. You would expect them to rest players – and in fact Roy Hodgson has said they will (link). Fulham’s second string could struggle – and though could scrape a draw, going there and winning is a huge ask.

LAY Fulham @ 3.2 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

We’ve been so close to so many good wins since the new season started – last minute goals, disallowed goals (Van Persie’s against Man United denying us a 19/1 winner) and sheer flukes denying us a hugely profitable couple of weeks. But have been there or thereabouts with most of our selections so far, which is encouraging.

It was nice to have a clean sweep last night, as both our bets (after the cancellation of QPR-Palace) won – Derby failed to beat Barnsley at odds on, and Ipswich were unable to beat Forest (we laid them both). Let’s hope we can carry that form forward. Check back later to see if we have any selections for tonight.

Password protection removed 16/09 @ 12.05

Champions League and Championship tonight – and it’s the latter where value stands out.

Derby v Barnsley

We backed Barnsley to avoid defeat in Mark Robins’ first game on Saturday, but Watford nicked the odd goal that gave them a narrow win. Now Robins has had more time to work with the players his influence should be felt further, and for a second successive away game we are going to back them to avoid defeat against an out of form home side. Derby have lost their last two matches yet are odds on against the basement boys – Barnsley can overturn those odds and deny Clough a much needed victory.

LAY Derby @ 1.91 (Betfair) 2 point liability

Ipswich v Forest

Ipswich have had a terrible start to the season, with four losses and a draw in their first five. Forest, unbeaten since the opening day, continue to be underrated by the bookies despite an antepost run on them for promotion. They have strengthened significantly and are too long here – more prevalently, Ipswich are far too short.

LAY Ipswich @ 2.3 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

QPR v Palace

Another to finish off a trio of short home lays – QPR are a mediocre side, their only win coming at home to Scunthorpe – and after Neil Warnock laid into his Palace side after their 4-0 defeat to the same side (Scunny) we expect a reaction here.

LAY QPR @ 2.2 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

A slightly obscure pick for a Monday night, but one that statistics suggest is fantastic value. Both sides are in the lower half of the Allsvenskan (Swedish league) and, with around 20 games gone, each have failed to score in around half of their matches so far. They have tight defences though – Malmo concede only 0.7 goals per game on average away, while Djurgarden concede on average only 0.7 goals per game at home. And the sides each average under a goal a game in total. Under 2.5 goals rarely looks as appealing as this.

Djurgardens v Malmo under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 (Bet365, PaddyPower, Skybet) – 2 points

Password protection removed 14/09 @ 14.57

Mark Robins’ move from Rotherham to Barnsley is the catalyst for our first two selections:

Rotherham v Morecambe

Rotherham will be reeling from the departure of their manager, who was creating a solid outfit. His influence will be stamped all over the club, and they could suffer in his wake. No doubt he will have spoken to various team members about their departure too, unsettling them further. Morecambe will sense weakness and although only ended up with a draw, their three goal bonanza against Rochdale will give them confidence. Rotherham are far too short at 1.66, and a definite lay.

LAY Rotherham @ 1.66 (Betfair) – 2 points liability

Watford v Barnsley

Tutored under Sir Alex Ferguson, Robins is a strong personality. Expect him to have a positive influence immediately he joins Barnsley. With his appointment their momentum should be enough to at least avoid defeat against Watford, who can be laid at slight odds against.

LAY Watford @ 2.1 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

Stoke v Chelsea

Stoke are consistently underestimated, particularly at home. They have a great record (behind only the Big Four last season) and are more than capable of giving the big sides a scare. Chelsea are very mechanical at the moment, swwping all before them, but can struggle for a spark of invention on occasion. They are 4/9 away, which is very short, and worth laying for a small stake.

LAY Chelsea @ 1.43 (Betfair) – 1 point liability

Portsmouth v Bolton

Two sides short on invention without a win between them all season (seven games in total). Both will be determined not to lose this, and it is likely to be scrappy and low quality. 0-0 is tempting – but we’ll play under 2.5 as the odd goal could nick it.

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 (SkyBet, Stan James, BetFred) – 2 points

A couple of selections from the midweek games…

Scotland v Holland

A tough game to call, this one – a must win for Scotland, and Holland potentially easing off with qualification assured. But if Holland do turn up, they should win – so we’ll stay away from the match prices. However, considering the unpredictability, Scotland’s end to end game against Macedonia, the relative qualities of the attacks and defences going into the game, and finally the odds, over 2.5 goals looks value.

Over 2.5 goals @ 6/5 (Sporting Bet, Victor Chandler) – 2 points

Northern Ireland v Slovakia

These are the top two teams in the group, and a draw would suit both just nicely. NI will want that extra point cushion, whereas Slovakia won’t want to lose ground to the teams chasing them. A draw in this game is more likely than a game picked at random – and with the odds only slightly shorter, there is some value.

Draw @ 23/10 (Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill) – 1 point

Serbia v France

Similar rationale for this one – a draw suits both sides, plus France don’t concede many but don’t score many either.

Draw @ 23/10 (Coral) – 1 point