A value bet to flag up for the freeloaders…

Spurs v Birmingham

The bookies have overreacted massively to Spurs’ start to the season, cutting them from 200/1 to just 30/1. They are rightly favourites to beat Birmingham – but Alex McLeish’s side are well drilled and well organised, and will not be easy to roll over (witness Man Utd’s narrow 1-0 victory over them). Bookmakers are siding with the momentum and favour Spurs for an easy win – they are as short as 4/11, and consequently over 2.5 goals is a miserly 5/8 in places. That leaves some value in the under market – Birmingham’s tight defence could make this difficult, and the 13/11 on Betfair looks appealing.

Under 2.5 goals @ 13/11 (Betfair) – 2 points

Fulham take a decent, but potentially vulnerable, 3-1 lead to Russia for the return leg of their Europa Cup playoff. The first leg victory was tainted by Andy Johnson’s injury and the away side giving themselves a chance with a fine volleyed goal.

Hodgson admitted before that game he’d rest players in Russia if Fulham were comfortable – and with their very small squad he could just do that, despite that away goal. Another factor is the Russian’s artificial pitch; away sides always struggle when faced with a bouncy, plasticy surface, and the Londoners could get a shock.

Fulham are slight favourites for the tie – but considering their cushion, the possibility they may rest players, the pitch, the Russian determination to progress in European competition, and Fulham’s reputation as a poor travelling side, laying the Cottagers is the way to go. There is some depth on Betfair laying them at up to 2.8, and that should be taken – although more should appear before kick off.

LAY Fulham @ 2.76 (Betfair) – 2 point liability

It’s been a good week so far, with our major selections both winning – Liverpool v Villa comfortably going over 2.5 goals and Bolton beating Tranmere. And our small outside bet nearly copped at 7/1, with Swindon just unable to nick a winner at Wolves but taking them to extra-time and penalties.

We have one premium selection to run in the Carling Cup tonight, a win there would make it a highly profitable week. Subscribe now to find out what it is…

Liverpool will be desperate for three points having already lost once this season, and with Torres and Gerrard both fit there is a good chance they will get them. Villa looked uncertain and vulnerable against Wigan on the first day of the season (made to look even more so by Wigan’s subsequent defeats) and it’s unlikely they will be able to repel Liverpool at Anfield – particularly considering Liverpool’s record against them (they have not lost in ten and beat them 5-0 last time out). Villa are reasonably potent away from home though – there could be goals in this one.

Liverpool v Aston Villa – Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes) – 2 points

There are four interesting fixtures in the Premier League tonight – and we’re picking results from three of them. The one we’re ignoring is Liverpool Stoke, as 1/4 is just too short.

Hull v Spurs

Spurs started excellently and will be keen to maintain that form. Hull were unlucky against Chelsea, but it was a poor performance from the Londoners. Spurs are a cut above quality wise and playing well, and should get something from the game.

Burnley v Man Utd

United are 1/3 in this one, which although clearly a short price is still decent for them. They are always strong against the weaker sides, especially those that try and play football against them. Burnley could struggle.

Birmingham v Portsmouth

Birmingham looked solid against United first up, and could have nicked a draw on another day. Portsmouth are in disarray at the moment, and their deflated players will struggle to get anything from St Andrews.

The treble on these three is 5.21/1 with Paddy Power, and worth a small interest.

Spurs, Man Utd, Birmingham treble @ 5.21/1 (Paddy Power) – 1 point

Password protection removed 19/08 @ 11.42

There are Champions League, Premier League, and Football League fixtures this week. We’ve already tipped Wigan to beat Wolves, and the price has fallen to 8/11… here are our other selections, a collection of lays.

Ipswich v Crystal Palace

Ipswich have had a stuttering start, with one point from their first two matches. They have not played well either, and there are already murmurings of discontent at Roy Keane’s managerial style. Crystal Palace suffered at the hands of the referee with their ‘ghost goal’ against Bristol City, and you can be sure that they, and Neil Warnock, will be fired up and come out fighting. At a shade over evens, Ipswich are too short.

LAY Ipswich @ 2.1 (Betfair) – 2 points

Colchester v Gillingham

Colchester have started well, with two wins from two including the 7-1 destruction of Norwich – although sandwiched between them was a defeat to Leyton Orient. However, manager Paul Lambert has since left to take over at Norwich, leaving an air of uncertainty around the club. They take on Gillingham, who were unlucky to lose a strong Tranmere side after two victories (including one over Championship Plymouth) to start the season. This should be a fairly close game – which makes the shade over evens on Colchester seem short. It’s another lay…

LAY Colchester @ 2.12 (Betfair) – 2 points

Walsall v Leeds

Leeds are never as strong away as they are at home, and Walsall have started the season well, managing to scramble a point with 10 men last time out. At even money, without a strong run of form behind them, Leeds are worth opposing tonight.

LAY Leeds @ 2.04 (Betfair) – 2 points

Sunderland take on Chelsea and Wigan take on Wolves on Tuesday – and it’s in the latter game we see a great opportunity.

Considering their opening day performance Wigan are worth a look anyway, but what makes them stand out all the more are the injury problems their visitors are suffering. They could be missing an entire team (including loans etc) -  Murray, Foley, Shackell, Berra, Ward, Kightly, Halford, Zubar, Doyle, Ebanks-Blake, and Iwelumo. With all of those players out Wolves’ squad is average Championship at best, and Wigan have to be strong favourites, at home, to beat a team of that quality. They are 4/5 with Totesport and Ladbrokes, which is excellent value.

Wigan @ 4/5 (Totesport/Ladbrokes) – 2 points

Three of our five selections won this weekend – Stoke comfortably beat Burnley (which was welcomed by the freeloaders who read us but don’t pay a subscription!) plus our lay of Shrewsbury and selection of over 2.5 goals in the Spurs-Liverpool game altogether brought us a small profit.

There are a raft of midweek games on Tuesday and Wednesday, and we will bring our selections for them in plenty of time.