As is to be expected, both Semi-Finals are enormously difficult to call. There is no obvious value in the match betting – but our bet of the round comes in tomorrow’s Man United v Arsenal game.

Manchester United are wobbling, there is no doubt – and though their second half destruction of Tottenham will have been morale boosting it will only paper over the cracks in their previously impenetrable defence. They’ve conceded 13 in their last 9, and with Wes Brown possibly returning tomorrow there could be a further unsettling reshuffle. Arsenal are scoring freely – 2,4,1,3,4 goals scored in their last five games and are in great form – a United clean sheet is by no means guaranteed, and dare we say, unlikely.

Where is the value, then? Against Middlesbrough, Cesc Fabregas played an advanced role as he did to great effect last season, and scored both the Gunners’ goals. Against United, Van Persie is likely to be out and Arshavin is ineligible, so Fabregas could again operate in the ‘hole’ behind the striker (Adebayor). He is available at 16/1 to be first goalscorer – that’s cracking value – and the safe bet is to back him to score anytime, at an equally generous 6/1 with Sporting Bet and Paddy Power.

Man United v Arsenal – Cesc Fabregas to score anytime @ 6/1 (Sporting Bet/PaddyPower) – 1 point

Man United and Chelsea both play tonight; the former against a Portsmouth side in decent form, the latter in a prequel to the FA Cup Final, against Everton.

We can expect both games to be tight; neither Chelsea nor Everton will want to lose and give the other a psychological advantage going into the domestic final, whereas United will be desperate for three points after Liverpool’s slip up; and their moduc operandi when needing a win has been a solid 1-0. Portsmouth are no pushovers either, unbeaten in five and only conceding four goals.

Under goals looks the way to go in both of these games; and with decent odds on in both, the double offers good value.

Man United v Portsmouth under 2.5 goals @ Evens (1/1) – Paddy Power

Chelsea v Everton under 2.5 goals @ 5/6 (Paddy Power)

Double pays 3.66 – 1 point

It was a poor weekend for Wakuba as the end of season unpredictablity took its toll. Wolves, traditional bottlers, secured a routine victory and promotion, while Derby continued to be off the boil.

As the climax draws nearer we will focus on teams that have something to play for, those chasing the playoffs or automatic promotion, those that have extra motivation over mid table sides. Although that was the reason for choosing Middlesbrough!

There are games tonight and midweek so check back for our selections; we hope to get back to winning ways.

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Arsenal v Villarreal

These two sides drew 1-1 in Spain; and Arsenal are hot favourites to progress, as short as 2/9 in places. Villarreal, already without midfielder Santi Cazorla, will also miss the influential Marcos Senna at the Emirates; and are a lesser team without him. They were taken aback by the tempo of Arsenal’s game in the first leg, and at home the Gunners will up that further. Fabregas is back and looking fit and refreshed, and though they miss Arshavin, they still have the attacking might of Adebayor, Van Persie, Walcott, Bendtner, Nasri, Eduardo… need I go on? But what also points to Arsenal is their excellent defensive record, particularly at home; they’ve only conceded one goal in their last eleven home matches in all competitions; and have an identical record in the Champions League. Their back-line is a little depleted (Gallas is out for the season, possibly joined by Clichy and Djorou) but they should still be too strong for a Villarreal side without arguably their best two players. To qualify is much too short to follow – but there is some value in the 4/7 on Arsenal to win the match.

Arsenal @ 4/7 (BetFred) – 2 points

Apologies for the lack of notice on this one – free content for tonight’s CL encounters…

Chelsea v Liverpool

Liverpool, as we all know, need to overcome a 3-1 deficit – a massive ask. But they will go for it from the off – I suspect Benitez will start with Torres and Gerrard and go for the throat from the start, then take them off if it doesn’t look like happening. The Reds will be pouring forward in search of goals (and should get one) which will leave them exposed at the back – exposure Chelsea will be keen to take advantage of. There could be a few goals in this one – we’ll play both teams to score.

Chelsea v Liverpool – Both teams to score @ 4/5 (Totesport, SkyBet, Ladbrokes) – 1 point

Edit – Gerrard is out, but this shouldn’t alter the way Liverpool play, and they still have Torres…

Bayern v Barcelona

An even taller task for Bayern, as they look to overcome an 4-0 handicap; nigh on impossible. But at home they will be looking to salvage some pride, and will come at Barca from the start. The Catalans are hardly a ‘park the bus’ side and should retaliate in kind – end to end exciting stuff, we predict; and a few goals. Historically these ‘dead’ games contain lots of goals; we think this one will, too.

Bayern v Barcelona Over 2.5 goals @ 8/13 (Bet365) – 1 point

There is one stand-out bet in the Premiership this weekend; and that is Stoke at home to Newcastle.

Stoke have an excellent home record, one of the best in the division, and even won away from home last time out as they consigned West Brom to relegation. Their record at the Britannia is bettered only by the Big Four; and against a side in the relegation zone, as Newcastle are, an odds against price – 6/4 in fact – looks fantastic value.

The ‘Shearer factor’ is the one thing to be aware of (and the thing that amy affect our selection of Newcastle to be relegated) – but considering the last messiah, Kevin Keegan, took nine matches to get off the mark – and Newcastle were arguably in better shape then than now – it may not kick in just yet.

Back Stoke’s excellent home form to continue – and Newcastle’s malaise to deepen.

Stoke @ 6/4 (Bet365, Victor Chandler) – 1 point

With everyone piling on the ‘under goals’ market last night, we went against public opinion, took advantage of the sliding odds, and rightly advised a lay at the falsely short price of 1.54.

A 3-1 win for Chelsea made that a nice winner for us, at nearly 2/1. Check back later for our Easter Weekend selections.