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Luton v Rotherham

We picked Accrington at the weekend, citing Rotherham going off the boil in the wake of their season petering out. That was a dull 0-0 – but Luton have far more to play for, and have their tails up at the slight chance they can avoid relegation. They’ve won three on the bounce and will go straight for the neck against Mark Robins men, who could crumble in the face of their own inevitable mid table mediocrity. The 6-4 about the home side is worth following.

Luton @ 6/4 (Totesport) – 1 point

Wrexham v Barrow (Thursday)

There is a stand-out bet in the Blue Sq Premier on Thursday, where Wrexham take on Barrow. Wrexham have struggled of late, with only 1 win in 12 – and Dean Saunders has developed a reputation for rotation, using over 40 players thus far. That coupled with some public criticism has had a definite effect on performances. Barrow are not strong away but come into this on the back of three successive wins, including last time out 3-0 away at Weymouth (admittedly, it’s Weymouth – but confidence boosting nonetheless). Wrexham have steadily slipped down the table in recent weeks and now sit 10th, but are still 7 places ahead of Barrow, which to some extent explains the odds: Best prices 7/10, 11/4, and 9/2. At these prices Wrexham are a lay, and a small stake on Barrow may be tempting – we’ll just play the lay, though.

LAY Wrexham @ 1.74 (Betfair) – 2 points

Israel and Greece played out the draw we predicted, giving our subscribers a nice 9/4 winner.

Unfortunately Accrington couldn’t quite sneak all three points against Rotherham, and Barnet suffered a surprise defeat to Darlington, making us slightly down for the weekend.

It’s been an average month for Wakuba, some good winners but unprofitable overall; but we are a long term strategy, and have so far brought back approximately 20% to our subscribers, including one month in which we returned over 40%.

We recommend a minimum 6 month subscription to release the potential of our strategy – sign up now to benefit from our extensive research and analysis.

There is a cricket game just starting with South Africa playing Australia, a 20/20.

Anything can happen in this short form of the game, and it’s worth looking at a value outsider for top batsman; a quick 30 at the end of an innings can make all the difference. Australia bat now so you have a couple of hours to back top SA bat – and our outside picks are Robin Peterson and Johan Botha. Peterson is a decent bat more than capable of a few runs and should probably trade around 20/1 (he’s 66/1) whereas Botha can hit a long ball – and is captain so may indulge himself up the order (or respond to the responsibility). Just small stakes as this is an outsider – but represents value.

South Africa v Australia 20/20
Top South Africa Batsman
Robin Peterson @ 66/1 (Paddypower) – .25 points
Johan Botha @ 40/1 (Extrabet/Coral) – .25 points

Here are the current best-odds for Premiership relegation:

West Brom 1/14 (Coral, Extrabet)

Middlesbrough 4/7 (Expekt, Ladbrokes, William Hill)

Newcastle 6/5 (Expekt)

Stoke 5/2 (Extrabet)

Hull 3/1 (Sportingbet, Coral)

Blackburn 11/2 (Expekt)

Sunderland 6/1 (Betfred)

Portsmouth 7/1 (Victor Chandler)

Bolton 12/1 (Ladbrokes/William Hill)

The standout price there has to be Newcastle. You can apply all the old cliches – ‘they’re too good to go down’, ‘they’ve got the players to get them out of it’ – but the simple fact is they’re not, and they haven’t. On paper, yes – but their key players are so irregularly available that is makes a mockery of their strongest eleven. You wouldn’t have faith in Joe Kinnear having the nous to get them out of trouble, but he’s in hospital anyway – and you must have even less faith in Chris Hughton and Colin Calderwood. Calderwood was sacked as Forest manager earlier this season, and Hughton has little managerial experience; it’s rumoured that the players have rallied against him, saying they’ve lost confidence, and want to install Terry Venables to carry them out of trouble.

None of this gives you any confidence that the Magpies can avoid the drop; and neither does their current form. Although they were competitive against Arsenal in the first half at the weekend, including a missed penalty, they were outclassed in the second. They have won only one of their last 14 games, and kept only six clean sheets all season (in 34 matches). Their malaise starts at the back (losing Shay Given was a huge blow) and they do not have the power upfront to compensate. Owen will score goals given chances, but those chances are not forthcoming – and he spends half his time on the treatment table.

It’s hard to imagine a team of Harper, Enrique, Bassong, Taylor, Beye, Duff, Guttierez, Butt, Nolan, Owen and Martins struggling – and that leaves a bench of Coloccini, Barton, Viduka and Geremi. But struggle they have – and so low are they on confidence, so short on form and results, that it’s difficult to see them picking up at the end of the season. Particularly as their remaining fixtures are:

Newcastle v Chelsea

Stoke v Newcastle

Tottenham v Newcastle

Newcastle v Portsmouth

Liverpool v Newcastle

Newcastle v Middlesbrough

Newcastle v Fulham

Aston Villa v Newcastle

Their home games against Portsmouth, Middlesbrough and Fulham are absolutely crucial in the run in – the rest of their games are tough, and it’s hard to see them picking up more than a couple of points from them. Even if they win all of those three, and get a couple of draws – which would be a strong run-in – they would only finish on 40 points, by no means certain of survival.

Newcastle fans – it’s squeaky bum time. And we don’t think you’ll make it.

Newcastle to be relegated @ 6/5 (Expekt) – 1 point

We were burned by the traditional ‘pick a short odds selection to bump the odds of a double’ last night, as contrary to all form and results Elgin managed a draw at Forfar.

The second half of the double is to run, so worth covering with a single.

Cheltenham secured a 2-2 draw, making our lay of Huddersfield at 1.63 a winner – but it could have been so much better… Cheltenham were a 7.2 tip and only a 93rd minute equaliser denied our subscribers.

But Cheltenham’s draw, coupled with Millwall’s stirring comeback (coming back from 2-0 down to win 3-2) brought us level for the weekend after Crewe’s surprisingly abject performance against Leeds and Gillingham’s collapse against Grimsby.

There are more and more surprise results as we near the end of the season; Wakuba will be using all of our research and analysis tools to find the ‘value’, find the incorrect prices, and make money from our betting.

n.b.

Punters taking our free advice will be cursing Portsmouth this morning as they upset our double; if you subscribe, you get access to our subscription tips instead…

Everton are finally getting the credit they deserve for their excellent form this season; they have now lost only once in their last eighteen games, and that a narrow defeat at Old Trafford. They visit Portsmouth who have lost over half their home games and have only one win in their last nine matches. Portsmouth do have some quality so Everton to win outright is risky; but the Blue half of Merseyside should avoid defeat and you can back that (double chance Everton and Draw) at around 2/5.

Meanwhile a six point relegation clash sees Stoke host Boro. The only reason Stoke are not struggling more is their excellent home form; they are a different side at the Brittania with a record only bettered by the top sides. Boro are a young team and they are struggling from a lack of confidence – a frail side like that will not want to visit the Potteries. Stoke should avoid defeat, and you can back that (double chance Stoke and Draw) at around 4/11.

Double these two together and your price is 1.9 (Stan James, 888 Sport) – 2 points

EDIT – These can be combined through the Betfair multiples module to give 2.04 which, minus their commission, is very slightly better)

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