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Here is your subscription content for the weekend of the 14th/15th February…

Derby v Man Utd

An interesting game, this – can Clough’s revitalised Derby spring a surprise? 9/1 says they do. Will Utd outclass them with a changed side? That’s 4/11. Will they even change their side? Will Carlos Tevez get on the scoresheet? That’s 13/10. Derby won the League Cup game at Pride Park earlier in the season – and put two past United at Old Trafford in a 4-2 defeat. Although Man Utd are on a phenomenal run in the Premiership – eight consecutive wins and no goals conceded for 13 matches – but during that time, in cup games, they have conceded nine in five games. There is a definite feeling that Utd relax a little in the cups, and play slightly more expansive football – this, combined with probable changes to Derby’s side, Derby’s improved recent form, and home advantage, makes the pick for us is Derby to score (1 or more goals) @ 5/6 (Paddy Power).

Derby to score 1 or more goals @ 5/6 (Paddy Power) – 1 point

Burnley v Wolves

Six of Burnley’s last eight games at home have gone over 2.5 – and they have only kept seven clean sheets this season. Their attack is potent, though, with 23 in 15 home matches and 21 in 16 away (the 3rd highest in the division). They have overcome their blip after their glut of cup fixtures, and should cause Wolves trouble. With their defence, however, you wouldn’t back on them keeping the visiting team at bay – particularly as Wolves have scored 29 away goals, by far the best in the division. Wolves have scored two or more in 23 of their 32 games this season – but also have a weak defence, conceding 25 away from home – ironically only ‘worsed’ by Burnley themselves. Considering all these factors, over 2.5 goals has to be the way to go here.

Burnley v Wolves – Over 2.5 goals @ 8/11 (888sport, BlueSq) – 1 point

Bristol City v Southampton

Bristol City go into this clash with four straight wins, whereas struggling Southampton have just one win from fourteen games. With form and momentum, against a Southampton side lacking both – and confidence – the widely available 8/11 represents value.

Bristol City @ 8/11 (available everywhere) – 1 point

Bradford v Wycombe

A top of the table League Two clash – but two teams in very different form. Wycombe’s scrappy win over Accrington Stanley does not disguise their recent toils – they are a long way away from their all conquering early season form, and had suffered two defeats in their three games prior to that win. Bradford, on the other hand, have suffered only one defeat in their past nine games, winning their last two, and now proudly atop the table – ahead of Wycombe on goal difference. The home side will be hugely fired up for this game, aware of their chance to open a gap, whereas Wycombe will be demoralised at the possibility of falling further behind, after being so dominant previously.

Bradford @ 7/5 (Victor Chandler) – 1 point

Exeter v Aldershot

Exeter come into this match on a high after a 4-0 thumping of Macclesfield – one of two wins in their last three. They are a team in form, and are steadily climbing the table after a recent poor run. Aldershot suffered a heavy defeat to Rochdale last time out, and prior to that were thumped 3-0 by Brentford. William Hill are the only firm to go odds against on the home side and that is definitely worth a point.

Exeter @ 21/20 (William Hill) – 1 point

Macclesfield v Rochdale

We have backed Rochdale in each of their last three wins, and there is no reason to deviate from that against Macclesfield. The away side suffered the aforementioned 4-0 humbling by Exeter in their last game – and that was preceded by a 2-0 defeat to Rotherham. They have failed to score in their last three outings, whereas Rochdale have scored two or more in their last six consecutive matches. Rochdale are a very good League Two side (we fancy them as outsiders for the title) and should be too strong here.

Rochdale @ 11/10 (Generally available) – 2 points

Rotherham v Gillingham

Rotherham’s league position is only a result of their points deduction – with the 17 points they’ve lost, they would actually only be three points behind Gillingham with a game in hand. Gillingham are struggling a little, with only victory over lowly Chester in their last three outings, and with home advantage the 11/8 available on Rotherham looks appealing.

Rotherham @ 11/8 (Skybet) – 1 point

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Swansea v Fulham

This has been flagged in most places – including by the TV networks – as the most likely upset in the 5th Round – and there are plenty of compelling reasons why. Firstly, Swansea’s excellent recent form; after their phenomenal run of eight straight draws they have now won six of their last seven; including a 2-0 win at Fratton Park in the last round. Fulham’s away form has been miserable; only three goals and no wins yet this season. A form lower division side taking on a struggling (away from home) side in a higher division always has the potential for an upset, and at 13/8 they are worth following.

Swansea @ 13/8 (Skybet) – 1 point