Wolfsburg v Portsmouth

Wolfsburg are in good form (won 5 of 6 Bundesliga games, and two from two in the UEFA) – but as are Portsmouth, unbeaten in five including drawing with AC Milan.

Portsmouth need a win to have any chance of progressing, and I see them really going for it – with Crouch, Defoe et al they certainly have goals in them. Their last 3 games in all competitions have been 3-2, 2-2, 2-2, so they’re scoring but also conceding.

Wolfsburg’s two UEFA games have been 3-2 and 5-1 – and aside from their recent 0-0 draw with Dortmund, Bundesliga results have been 4-1, 2-3, -0 so there are lots of goals going into this one.

I see it as an open game, Portsmouth attacking as they really need a win, and Wolfsburg having the quality to hit them on the counter attack.

Over 2.5 Goals Wolfsburg v Portsmouth 1.91 (Betfair)

In the same game, I would be inclined to back a late goal – Portsmouth conceded 2 late to AC Milan in their last UEFA outing, and have also conceded late to Hull and Wigan recently – as well as scoring late to win at Blackurn last weekend.

Wolfsburg produced a stunning comeback to beat Braga in stoppage time in their last UEFA Cup game, and also scored late against Stuttgart in their penultimate Bundesliga game.

Its relatively difficult to find games where either of them haven’t scored or conceded late, in fact!

With this likely to be an open game, with Porstmouth pushing for a results, there is a good chance goals will come late – and its the form.

Portsmouth will be nervous, having conceded late to deny them victory at AC Milan, and likely to waver with victory in sight – conversely, if not winning, they’ll push for it which will leave them open.

Time of the last goal later than 74th minute: 5/6 (Paddy Power)